Sunday, August 1, 2010

Deciding on a Rotation

Assuming no other rotation players are added between now and the opening of the season, we have reached the point where we can start dreaming up lineups and rotations. I am going to attempt to lay the foundation for this exercise in visualization.

First, we have our projected starting line-up:

5 - Anthony
4 - Bosh
3 - James
2 - Wade
1 - Chalmers

Then we have our projected second unit A and B team (in parenthesis):

5 - Ilgauskas (Magloire/Howard/Pittman)
4 - Haslem (Haslem)
3 - Miller (Jones)
2 - House (Miller)
1 - Arroyo (House)

You know that Haslem and Miller will get 28+ minutes per game, so there will be plenty of lineups with them in it, including the presumed closing group:

5 - Bosh
4 - Haslem
3 - James
2 - Miller
1 - Wade

This group gives up some considerable size and weight in the front court on most nights, but probably has the size and weight advantage at the other spots most nights too. What stands out about this unit is that all five of the players on the court are good rebounders, passers, shooters, and have high basketball IQ.

I can see that this team has the flexibility to go big by inserting Ilgauskas or Magloire and has options at the 1, 2 and 3 positions for designated shooters in House, Miller and Jones. There are plenty of viable combinations. However, in my minds eye, what is hardest to decipher is who plays the first four minutes of the 4th quarter, considering the fact that the closing group is usually together for the final 8 minutes of the game. Ideally, I would like one of the big 3 on the court, but is it reasonable to keep a player in there for the entire 4th?

Another thing to consider is whether to play either LeBron or Dwyane at all times. Assuming each plays 38 minutes per game, that still leaves 28 minutes of playing them together. If this is done, I would expect Ilgauskas to be on the court with LeBron's unit and Haslem to be on the court for Wade's unit. If you could have Bosh and Miller on both of those groups, you would have two elite units. This can easily be accomlished by allowing Bosh his ten minute rest during those 28 minutes that LeBron and Dwyane share the court together. He would then be playing ten minutes with LeBron, ten minutes with Dwyane and 18 minutes with both of them. This would allow the Miami Heat to have two stars on the floor for 48 minutes and three stars for 18 minutes.

LeBron's team could be:

5 - Ilgauskas
4 - Bosh
3 - James
2 - Miller
Any perimeter player

Dwyane's team could be:

5 - Bosh
4 - Haslem
3 - Miller
2 - Wade
Any perimeter player

It can be argued that the James team could compete with last year's Cavaliers and that Wade's team would beat up on last year's Heat squad. For the other 28 minutes, they would be on the court together, which would demolish most teams. 18 of those minutes would also include Bosh, which is 37.5% of the game.

The fact that these three superstars can play 38 minutes per game with at least one superstar beside them is astounding. However, I do not expect that to be the strategy of choice because the three will want to play together for longer stretches and I presume they will also want to be the man at times, so they can flex their individual muscles and stay sharp. I think they would even enjoy watching a true second unit for some stretches, and check in together after watching the second team stand strong. I don't know about you, but I think the second unit can stack up with most teams second unit anyway:

5 - Ilgauskas
4 - Haslem
3 - Miller
2 - House
1 - Arroyo

Well, there you have it. If you still have doubts about whether Miami is strong enough to knock off the Celtics and the Lakers, then you, my friend are a pessimist. A Heat hater can draw up all the arguments they want as to why those other teams are stronger, and they are generally well thought out... except for the part that we got them all, discounted!

3 comments:

  1. This is really, really nice work, Cyrus. I've been on blogs where I've felt like my IQ was around 100 points higher than anyone else there - not here! Your stuff is highly intelligent and knowledgeable, yet easily understood by laypeople. I thank you and KKBoy for this blog.

    And, I can't really add anything to your post, at least not at this moment. Though I am a bit curious about your focus on the first four minutes of the 4th period. I'm thinking that maybe Spoelstra will want the Big 3 to play together for the final six or so minutes of the game, and not worry so much about the first six (or so) minutes of that period. Maybe he'd have the most 'run-n-gun' line-up in to start the period. Just guessin'...

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  2. Cyrus, that will not be your second unit. At least one or two members of the big 3 will be on the floor at all times. And barring foul trouble or a blowout, either Wade or LeBron will be on the floor all 48 minutes of the game.

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  3. Thanks for the compliment BigSarge... I am going to start posting daily to the best of my ability again. I needed a bit of a summer break, especially because I would write articles and wasn't sure anyone was reading.

    With coach Spo I really do not know what to expect as far as rotation. I really do not think he can go wrong unless something proves to be inefficient and he sticks to it.

    I say try everything and see what works best. I don't like keeping one of the Big 3 at all times in all games, because I want the second unit guys to have an identity and some pride in themselves to prove they are not just riding coattails... this could pay dividends in a "15 strong" kinda way.

    I know that guys like Eddie House (who I know personally from college days) and Carlos Arroyo (who I scouted amateurishly at the Nike Desert Classic for college seniors in my college years) work better when they get responsibility put on their shoulders... Z, UD and Miller are enough fire power for that backcourt duo to manage the game/make a statement in limited stretches. Whenever we bring out that group, teams will try to make their run... and I think they will for the most part hold their own. Allowing all three guys to check in with about 8 minutes to go to shut the thing down.

    I know Arroyo is not popular with some of you, but I think he really has a role if we deploy a true second unit. He is one of those gritty, get under your skin types - just like Eddie House. They are good backups because of their personalities... at least I feel that way, because my game is a lot like theirs (fiery underdog type who slays dragons here and there).

    Arroyo has a solid jumper, he just does not have 3 point range. Also, he bores you on offense because he is following coaches orders to protect the ball to a fault, he actually could play really well pushing the ball if they let him loose.

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