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Sunday, March 28, 2010

You Be the GM

Assuming a $53 million Salary cap for 2010, Miami has the ability to retain all of its rotation players, sign two first round draft picks and sign a free agent for around $10 million, assuming we are able to re-sign our guys for reasonable first year salaries as part of a long term deal. Just take a look at James Jones's contract to figure out how Riley can pull that off.

Jones was signed to a five year deal with partial guarantees in years 3-5, which made up for the lower starting salary (in comparison to his other offers) and allowed Miami to stay under the luxury tax in that season.

Signed
$4.1M Michael Beasley
$1.8M Daequan Cook

Partial Guarantee
$1.9M James Jones ($4.7M full salary)

Player Option
$16.4M Dwyane Wade (max deal at $16.6M)
$.9 M Joel Anthony

Team Option
$.9 M Mario Chalmers

Unrestricted Free Agents (with hypothetical starting salaries on their new deals)
$6 M Jermaine O'Neal
$4 M Udonis Haslem
$3 M Dorell Wright
$2 M Quentin Richardson
$1 M Jamaal Magloire
$1 M Carlos Arroyo

First Round Draft Picks
$1.5M Toronto #1 Pick (15th)
$1.2M Miami #1 Pick (18th)

That's $42.7M committed to 14 players (assuming they are all brought back, including James Jones), leaving $10.3M available for one player. The idea then is to put your thinking caps on, using these figures, and make decisions on these players. Who would you keep, who would you trade and who would you sign and for how much?

Here is a complete list of all of the restricted and unrestricted free agents in 2010 and 2011. It could be important to keep in mind who will be available in 2011 also:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-10-11

19 comments:

  1. Inspiration for this topic was this story:

    http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/2008/04/you_be_the_gm_james_jones.html

    Two years ago, James Jones was a sought after free agent that Portland and its fans wanted to keep. My hope is that he can be traded rather than outright released if he does not figure into the 2010 plan.

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  2. Another thought:

    Restricted Free Agent Josh Childress has spent two seasons in Greece. I think he would cost $5M plus in the first year of a deal and Atlanta could match... thoughts

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  3. Maybe our free agents could get better contracts elsewhere, but there would be 10.5% yearly increases. JO would get about a 5 year, $36M deal from us without getting into the "Over 36 rule":

    2010: $6
    2011: $6.6M
    2012: $7.2M
    2013: $7.8M
    2014: $8.4M

    However, the over 36 rule treats the contract years beyond a player's 36th birthday as deferred compensation and therefore spreads the cap hit over the years leading to a player's 36th birthday, leaving the back end years at zero cap hold. Adding one more season to JO's contract at $9M, would bring it up to a 6 year, $45M deal ($7.5M per season), but the cap holds would go as follows:

    2010: $7.5M
    2011: $8.1M
    2012: $8.7M
    2013: $9.3M
    2014: $9.9M
    2015: $0

    However, once JO plays in the 2013 season, the NBA rules dictate that the player has proven his longevity and the cap hold gets split evenly within those three remaining seasons:

    2013: $6.4M
    2014: $6.4M
    2015: $6.4M

    It's an interesting thing to watch. Which ever team has JO in the 2013-15 season would have a lower cap # than his actual salary, which would come in handy in terms of remaining beneath the salary cap or luxury tax.

    Reference:
    http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q46

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  4. I haven't thought of my plan of attack yet, but there are some familiar names that may be interesting...

    John Salmons could shake free and makes a lot of sense for Miami.

    Eddie House could be had pretty cheap.

    Shaun Livingston may not be done. Here is video of him showing explosiveness around the hoop - dunking under Gasol:

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizardsinsider/2010/03/shaun-livingstons-sick-baselin.html

    Raja Bell is a guy who I would love for my bench.

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  5. In two years, Beasley's has failed to prove he is the power forward of the future. He has failed to keep Miami from pursuing Power Forwards this off-season. He has failed in his bid to make UD a thing of the past.

    Having Haslem on the bench is almost a necessity as Mike is establishing a reputation as Jekyll and Hyde. I, however, refuse to give into the idea that the kid is a bust.

    I still believe talent wins in this league... Michael needs to become the 4th or 5th option on this team. That's the role that helped Lamar Odom become loved in Los Angeles... he couldn't handle being Kobe's #2, just as Mike cannot handle being Dwyane's #2 right now.

    If Mike has to split time at the 3 and 4 to get his minutes next season because we added Boozer, Stoudemire or Bosh... then that is what we do. I could see Miami also keeping UD, making PF minutes scarce. Regardless, I am all for keeping the guy on the roster and getting him 30+ minutes at either forward spot.

    One day he could be a dominant Power Forward, but in the mean time we should add one in free agency. A sign and trade shouldn't even be necessary to attract one of the Big 3.

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  6. Sorry, it's just too early for this. We are trucking into the playoffs and have a major Beasley controversy. i can't pretend it is the summer.


    Basley has been disappointing lately, but it isn’t the whole of his body of work. I still blame spoelstra who couldn’t figure out how to use JO – a vet – in the offense for over a year. JO had to draw it out for him on a paper table cloth at one of those cheap restaurants where the waiter writes his name in crayons… They all say that Beasley should just get his offense however since it is natural. They’ve hung the kid out to dry. Call it excuses if you wish, but this team doesn’t do offense well and the coaching staff – worse. Was it just the first time, a few games back, when Spo got on Beasley to go strong to the hoop? Why have they not ever worked on his post up game? Don’t forget, this staff ruined Cook too. Who is next on the list? no wonder riley shipped the draft picks overseas. keep them from Spo…

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  7. I agree. Spo is still an idiot and the team has been badly managed. Look at us winning right now. We arent a top tier team, but theres no reason these same teams we have been beating, we shouldnt have already been beating them in earlier matchups. It takes the retard this long to make some adjustments we have all called for since day 1? Incredible. If you guys havent noticed, this stretch kicked off for us when Wade called the idiot out about the offense. Thats when things changd. It really took for Wade to call you out to diversify the offense? And even still, theres a lot more to be changed, like figuring out y in the fuk cant u get Beasley the same shots UD is taking. Thats nothing about Bease vs UD, its just knowin you have to pfs who can shoot, so y the fuk wouldnt u take advantage of them in the same way? y does one get to start from the elbow and the other starts from 20 ft out?

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  8. BTW...props to Cyrus for keeping the blog afloat. This place is wayy better than Iras blog and we need to take advantage of it. We need to make a better effort to be here and I along with Chris and others need to make an effort to help Cyrus out. We have been very lazy and very bad Americans....

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  9. One thing I would like to say about Beasley as well is, a one month stretch does not a career make. This is the first bad stretch hes really had and its been long. int that stretch tho he has helped win games(Atl,Memphis) in the 4th. Everyone forgets it so quickly. Yes he has been terrible and without bringing up reasons y, I have to point out in 2 years he has played well more than he has played like this. When he went on that 20 and 10 tear last year, why was that not rewarded and magnafied as much as when he goes on a bad stretch now? Y when he was scoring 17 or 19 on like 9 of 12 shooting, was there only an outcry from bloggers for him to get more touches and stay in for the 4th? Now when he slumps all of a sudden hes not going to be any good? Hes hurting the team? Its time to give up on him? Its all pathetic and really shortsighted, and I say all of that aiming it at the Heats stupid beat writers and game commentators.

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  10. Anyway......for the topic at hand

    I want to keep almost everyone we have. Jones, Arroyo,Chalmers, and Joel can haul ass tho. I think Joel will opt out and that will be ust fine. Every little penny helps us. I know Riley will do more trading than signing and so I am hoping we can ship out Jones in some deal and open up some space or give us less of a cap hit.

    WHen it comes to Free Agents, this is what I would like: DO NOT max out for anybody other than Lebron. After watching Bosh the other day I am even more sure this is something I dont want to do. Bosh is a very good player. but hes not a dominant back to the basket guy, nor is he an interior force on defense. Thats not something I want to pay a max for, even next to Wade. If I had to give up a max, I personally would rather do it for Amare. I knw most of u want, and u all make sense I bet, but the reason I do it is if we can convice him to play center. Amare has ALL the tools to dominate on offense and defense from that spot. If hes willing to play it and learn our system, I am cool with it. I am sure Bosh would be a better TEAM guy and play out of position, but he, imo, wouldnt be capable of being the physical force Amare COULD be.

    All that being said, my plan off attack is a dominoe effect. You get the best player you can at either C,SF,or PG and you go from there. For instance if you end up being able to get Joe, add a pg that can defend and hit a shot(Kirk,Felton) and call it a day. If you cant do better than JO, resign him BUT bring in Camby to back him up. Get what JO cant offer(rebounding) to back him up. If however you are able to trade for say a Monte Ellis to play in the backcourt with Wade, then go cheap. Bring back Dorrell as a starter to play defense and help bring the ball down and hit open shots. He wont take away any shots from Monte, & Wade, but he will hit the open ones he takes. Bring Q back as his backup as well. It also allows you more money to be used elsewhere. If you take the Ellis route, get a sith man that can score at sf. If you take the Johnson route with Kirk, get a pg/sg that can score ala nate robinson to back him up.

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  11. My posts are too long, anyway, these are my 3 teams in order of which I like.

    Okafor(Haywood)/Camby
    Beasley/UD/Dozier
    Wright/Salmons(or CDR)/Cook
    Wade/Q/Cook
    Ellis/Dooling/Beverly

    JO/Camby/Magloire
    Beasley/UD/Camby
    Joe/Wright/Cook
    Wade/Q/Cook
    Kirk/Nate/Beverly


    Amare/Camby
    Beasley/Camby/Dozier
    Jrich/Wright
    Wade/Q
    Dooling/Nate

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  12. While I agree that LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Melo, & even Dwight are the only guys that deserve max contracts (won't be long before CP3, Deron, & KD join the fray), if we don't pay those guys max contracts, they'll find them elsewhere. They all feel they deserve it, & playing with Wade or LeBron wouldn't change their mind. While I always thought Amar'e would be a better fit for the Heat, Bosh is younger, rebounds more consistently & doesn't have Amar'e's injury history. Can't go wrong either way imo, so w.e. If we do get Amar'e though, we need to find some way to keep JO. A frontcourt with Amar'e, JO & Beasley would be perfect.

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  13. Hey KB, thanks for the long posts... I don't think you have any apologizing to do... the place needs content. I love this place too... so glad you guys took the initiative to get out of that hell hole.

    It is still nice to go to Ira's blog to read what he says and maybe even read some of the comments and make a few observations if the place is being halfway rational, but this is home.

    Rant over...

    I agree that there is much going on right now and that I am more concerned with playoff scenarios and matchups than with who we are going to sign right now, but I figured I would improve on that template I put up last week and limited the variables... JO, UD, Dorell and company may receive bigger deals elsewhere, but I think Miami will not go much higher than to bring them back.

    Another note, D-Rose claiming the Bulls will get the 8th seed... I think I believe him. They are beating the Suns right now and play the Raptors next. They have the tougher schedule, but I am not counting them out.

    I'm kinda rooting for them. I know we lose a first rounder this year, but we will collect Toronto's second rounder and get that first rounder at a later time. Also, missing the playoffs may be a wake up call for Chris that he needs to play next to Dwyane to shed the RuPaul image. Now, getting embarrassed by the Cavs and not having a first round pick could be an even bleaker picture for them heading into next year, so maybe we should be rooting against the Bulls... who are lusting after our franchise player.

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  14. Amare, JO, Beasley could work very well as a rotation.

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  15. Bulls play Charlotte, Milwaukee, Cleveland and New Jersey before they play Toronto, then close against Boston and Charotte... they have a tough climb... still winning tonight against Phoenix.

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  16. Bulls play Washington next... just keeping track for the sake of our draft pick...

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  17. I just can't bring myself to embrace this mind-numbing speculation about the summer. THere are games to be played still, playoff seeding to be determined... Who can even care about Bosh vs. Amare, blah blah blah. If it ain't LBJ or Yao, it ain't going to matter that much. Does anyone think that Riley can remake the team as a dynasty in just one summer??? My guess right now is that whatever he does, he manages to keep Beasley and then trades the max player he picks up this year for a piece that matters more and that we need more - ie, a legit center. So next year is just more idle time keeping until Riley makes a bigger move. Another year for us to fret about Beasley and for the kid to develop. So, I don't care about this summer either. Time to just enjoy the finish of the mercenary team, which, I figure, will lose to a crappy team or two down the stretch.

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  18. Whoever said the reason Wade may be playing better is because things were going good in court was right. One case was dropped.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5041582

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  19. He was playing better because March is his month.

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