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Sunday, March 21, 2010

Projecting the 2010 Free Agent Market

With each passing day, we get closer to the 2010 off-season. Assuming $53.6 is the cap, the teams with the most space according to NBA.com:

TEAM SALARY AMOUNT UNDER
New York $21,571,737 $32,028,263
New Jersey $27,170,659 $26,429,341
Miami $32,254,326 $21,345,674
Washington $34,454,130 $18,943,379
Chicago $35,662,116 $17,937,884
Sacramento $36,454,130 $17,145,870
L.A. Clippers $38,235,273 $15,364,727
Minnesota $41,004,156 $12,595,844
Oklahoma City $42,104,151 $11,495,849


It would take a minor miracle for Miami to make a surprise run to the NBA Finals, so let's take another look ahead at the reconstruction process. Below is my (completely premature and amateur) prediction for the major 2010 free agents. With teams like New York, Washington, Chicago, and Sacramento clearing more cap room for this off-season, I am projecting more players to opt out and test the waters:


LeBron James.....................Cavs (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Dwayne Wade.....................Heat (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Chris Bosh..........................Raptors (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Amare Stoudemire.............Suns (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Dirk Nowitzki.....................Mavs (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Joe Johnson.......................Hawks (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Yao Ming............................Rockets (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Carlos Boozer.....................Knicks (signs for the max)
Rudy Gay...........................Grizzlies (re-signs for the max)
Paul Pierce.........................Celtics (exercises $21 million player option)
Ray Allen............................Celtics (re-signs for 3 years, $21 million)
David Lee...........................Thunder (signs for 5 years, $60 million)
Michael Redd.....................Knicks (opts out, signs for 5 years, $80 million)
Brendan Haywood.............Mavs (re-signs for 6 years, $70 million)
Shaquille O'Neal.................Cavs (re-signs for 2 years, $20 million)
Josh Howard......................Wizards (team picks up $11.8 million option)
Kenyon Martin...................Nuggets (exercises $16.5 million player option)
Al Harrington.....................Suns (signs for 5 years, $35 million)
Tracy McGrady...................Clippers (signs for 1 year, $10 million)
Luis Scola...........................Rockets (re-signs for 5 years, $40 million)
Marcus Camby...................Blazers (signs for 2 years, $16 million)
Jermaine O'Neal................Heat (re-signs for 5 years, $40 million)

Mathematically speaking, Miami would rather bring in a free agent via sign and trade. This would allow the team to hold onto any and all of its players, sign its draft picks and use the mid-level ($6 million) and bi-annual exception ($2 million).

I will be dreaming of signing LeBron, Bosh, or Stoudemire with the rest of you but if nobody moves I will take solace in the fact that we retained the best player in franchise history and try not to pout too much about what could have been. With Wade under contract for another six years it should be pretty easy to take the next step forward and become a contender again even if the dream of building a dynasty in Miami does not take root.

11 comments:

  1. So we go forward with Wade, JO and Beasley/Haslem as our core with a bunch of scrubs filling out the rest of the roster as well as head coach? smells like more of the same...


    in the words of Boy George: "Do you really want to hurt me, do you really want to make me cry?"

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  2. ra:

    But a game after a Beasley defensive gaffe left Rashard Lewis open for a crucial 3-pointer in an overtime loss to the Magic, Spoelstra played the percentages.

    Spoelstra:
    Beasley was on the floor for the game’s final moments, and was the subject of some second-guessing after Rashard Lewis buried a wide-open three-pointer to seal the win.

    Spoelstra defended Beasley on Friday afternoon, saying he was right to follow Dwight Howard to the post in that situation.

    “You don’t want to necessarily forget about it,” Beasley said.

    “You want to see what happened, what went wrong, if you did anything wrong. Obviously, I wish it could have gone the other way, but I love the pressure.”

    Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/03/20/1538775/miami-heat-faces-easier-schedule.html#ixzz0isGdwfOZ

    So, the only gaffe was Spoelstra’s defensive philosophy and Ira’s pretend attempt to understand and speak about basketball.

    Ira, GFY!!!!!

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  3. Well played by Spoelstra. At least he didn't say "and that my friends is why Beasley is normally on the bench during crunch time, suck on that! GOOO HASLEM!"

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  4. Raja Bell is getting a buyout from the Golden State Warriors....

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  5. Haha. Surprised Chris ain't comment about the post yet. Knicks are not going to settle for Redd, & possibly not even Boozer. The plan is to get a top 5 FA or keep the cap for another summer (maybe a few 1 year deals here & there). I also don't see the point of the Thunder signing Lee (& for that much money). Though Lee is a better rebounder, him & Jeff Green are pretty redundant & what they need is a post scorer. Boozer, Bosh, Amar'e & those types are who they want.

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  6. Didn't realize Redd's knee injury was that bad... re-signing T-Mac would make more sense, if he would take a 1 year deal to remain in NY so they can pursue 2011 options.

    Who will sign David Lee? You think Boozer to OKC is a possibility? They are a great young team, but I have my doubts about their ability to recruit top flight free agents in 2010. $11.5M will not be enough of a starting point for Carlos Boozer's contract this off-season.

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  7. Its unbelievable this dude from the d-league comes into the NBA and scores 23 pts and grabs 5 rebounds. How do other teams keep finding people out of nowhere that are better than most players the Heat draft/trade for? *looks at Pat Riley. Oh.

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  8. Talking about Reggie Williams

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  9. why do I continue to hear insistence from Ira that the sign and trade route is a viable option for the heat? unless there is a 3-way thats going down that we dont know about, tell me why toronto or phoenix wants to take back haslem or JO or even beasley at this point in a sign and trade for bosh or amare?

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  10. Reggie played his first game against Miami and looked great... I am disappointed that we drafted Marcus Thornton only to trade him - he looks good. Also, Anthony Morrow is looking good too.

    UD and Joel are undrafted guys... if that makes you feel better. Not sure it does. We bring in Earl Barron, Chris Quinn and the likes and commit years to them for years with minimal return on that investment. I'm glad Joel has become a decent 2nd/3rd string center, but it isn't really something to brag about.

    Udonis, however proved himself after his rookie year, which allowed us to trade Brian Grant, Lamar Odom and Caron Butler for Shaq and slot him into the starting lineup... he was a great find.

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