Sunday, May 9, 2010
Thoughts on Summer of 2010 strategy
Let's take a look at our current 2010 roster without including Dwyane Wade, who will need to be recruited just like any of the other high profile 2010 free agents:
C - J. Anthony ($800k) - player option
PF - M. Beasley ($5M)
SF - J. Jones ($4.7M - $1.9M if bought out)
SG - D. Cook ($2.2M)
PG - M. Chalmers ($900k) - team option
1st Round pick ($1.7M)
G- Kenny Hasbrouck ($500k?) not guaranteed
G - Pat Beverley ($5ook?) not guaranteed
F - Robert Dozier ($500k?) not guaranteed
2nd Round pick (500k?) not guaranteed
2nd Round pick ($500k?) not guaranteed
2nd Round pick ($500k?) not guaranteed
This is $15.3M invested into 6 players... if you exclude the second round picks and undrafted free agents on non-guaranteed deals. With the salary cap set at $56.1M, Miami will have $40.8M leftover to play with for free agency. Releasing Jones would clear up another $2.3M when you factor in the cap hold for his spot. That leaves enough money for two max free agents plus a player in the $5-7 million range depending on if Jones is released on June 30th or not.
Before that decision has to be made, the 2010 NBA Draft at Madison Square Garden will take place on June 24th. I expect that to be quite the trading market with Pat Riley holding over $10M in moveable contracts (Beasley, Jones, Cook) to go along with 4 2010 picks and multiple future first rounders including Toronto's lottery protected 1st rounder.
I'm sure most of you remember last years big draft day trade:
Shaquille O'Neal (1 year, $21.7M)
Ben Wallace (1 year, $14M - agreed to buyout)
Sasha Pavlovic (1 year, $4.5M - $1.5M guaranteed)
Cash and a 2nd round draft pick
Some of you will remember this post-draft trade, where the Grizzlies used their cap space to upgrade their roster via trade:
Quentin Richardson (1 year, $8.7M)
Zach Randolph (2 years, $33M)
Shaq's acquisition has helped Cleveland earn home court advantage through the playoffs, while Zach Randolph became an All-Star for Memphis. Both of those deals were one sided salary dumps, so with that in mind, I will present you some of the most prominent available talent that could be available in some sort of salary dump. Their remaining contract is an estimate based on the information provided by hoopsworld.com:
PG - Leandro Barbosa, PHO (2 years, $14.7M)
PG - Kirk Hinrich, CHI (2 years, $17M)
PG - Lou Williams, PHI (3 years, $17.8M)
PG - Jose Calderon, TOR (3 years, $29.3M)
PG - Baron Davis, LAC (3 year, $41M)
PG - Devin Harris, NJ (4 years, $34.2M)
PG - Gilbert Arenas, WAS (4years, $80M)
SF - Andre Igoudala, PHI (4 years, $56.5M)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, TOR (4 years, $44M)
SF - James Posey, NO (2 years, $14.5M)
SF - Jason Richardson, PHO (1 year, $14.5M)
SF - Andres Nocioni, SAC (3 years, $20M)
SF - Andrei Kirilenko, UTA (1 year, $17.8M)
PF - Paul Millsap, UTA (4 years, $34.5M)
PF - Elton Brand, PHI (3 years, $51M)
C - Sam Dalembert, PHI (1 year, $12.2M)
Using James Jones in a trade clears his guarantees for the next three years for $1.9M, $2.0 and $2.1M. For another team, those figures (3 years, $6M) could be a lot easier to swallow than the contracts they are currently are on the hook for. Taking on some of those guys might also bring a lottery pick Miami's way (all of the players listed are from lottery teams, except the Suns - Utah has New York's).
I included talent from Phoenix and Utah because Riley spent the closing hours of the trade deadline discussing possible off-season moves and while we assume that the intention is to do a sign and trade for Boozer or Stoudemire, we don't really know what they were discussing. Maybe Miami is interested in Leandro Barbosa or Paul Millsap because of their reasonable contracts, or even Richardson or Kirilenko for their bloated expiring contracts (options I would not expect the team to explore until later in free agency, if at all). Most likely, this off-season is about landing two these five guys:
1. LeBron James - the BiW due to his age, size and durability advantage over D-Wade.
2. Dwyane Wade - the BiW until his age, size and durability actually become an issue.
3. Chris Bosh - Pau Gasol II ...the best PF/C that primetime has never seen.
4. Yao Ming - the BiW (biggest in the world). The biggest mismatch you'll ever find.
5. Amar'e Stoudemire - 2nd team All-NBA Center this season.
Is there anybody on that list of available players through trade that would improve our chances of making this happen? I don't think so, but I will be paying attention when the market intensifies again around the draft. Something big will happen this off-season, we just don't know what that will be or when the first domino will fall.