Sunday, May 9, 2010

Thoughts on Summer of 2010 strategy

Let's take a look at our current 2010 roster without including Dwyane Wade, who will need to be recruited just like any of the other high profile 2010 free agents:

C - J. Anthony ($800k) - player option
PF - M. Beasley ($5M)
SF - J. Jones ($4.7M - $1.9M if bought out)
SG - D. Cook ($2.2M)
PG - M. Chalmers ($900k) - team option

1st Round pick ($1.7M)
G- Kenny Hasbrouck ($500k?) not guaranteed
G - Pat Beverley ($5ook?) not guaranteed
F - Robert Dozier ($500k?) not guaranteed
2nd Round pick (500k?) not guaranteed
2nd Round pick ($500k?) not guaranteed
2nd Round pick ($500k?) not guaranteed

This is $15.3M invested into 6 players... if you exclude the second round picks and undrafted free agents on non-guaranteed deals. With the salary cap set at $56.1M, Miami will have $40.8M leftover to play with for free agency. Releasing Jones would clear up another $2.3M when you factor in the cap hold for his spot. That leaves enough money for two max free agents plus a player in the $5-7 million range depending on if Jones is released on June 30th or not.

Before that decision has to be made, the 2010 NBA Draft at Madison Square Garden will take place on June 24th. I expect that to be quite the trading market with Pat Riley holding over $10M in moveable contracts (Beasley, Jones, Cook) to go along with 4 2010 picks and multiple future first rounders including Toronto's lottery protected 1st rounder.

I'm sure most of you remember last years big draft day trade:

Cleveland gets:
Shaquille O'Neal (1 year, $21.7M)

Phoenix gets:
Ben Wallace (1 year, $14M - agreed to buyout)
Sasha Pavlovic (1 year, $4.5M - $1.5M guaranteed)
Cash and a 2nd round draft pick

Some of you will remember this post-draft trade, where the Grizzlies used their cap space to upgrade their roster via trade:

Clippers get:
Quentin Richardson (1 year, $8.7M)

Grizzlies get:
Zach Randolph (2 years, $33M)

Shaq's acquisition has helped Cleveland earn home court advantage through the playoffs, while Zach Randolph became an All-Star for Memphis. Both of those deals were one sided salary dumps, so with that in mind, I will present you some of the most prominent available talent that could be available in some sort of salary dump. Their remaining contract is an estimate based on the information provided by

PG - Leandro Barbosa, PHO (2 years, $14.7M)
PG - Kirk Hinrich, CHI (2 years, $17M)
PG - Lou Williams, PHI (3 years, $17.8M)
PG - Jose Calderon, TOR (3 years, $29.3M)
PG - Baron Davis, LAC (3 year, $41M)
PG - Devin Harris, NJ (4 years, $34.2M)
PG - Gilbert Arenas, WAS (4years, $80M)
SF - Andre Igoudala, PHI (4 years, $56.5M)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, TOR (4 years, $44M)
SF - James Posey, NO (2 years, $14.5M)
SF - Jason Richardson, PHO (1 year, $14.5M)
SF - Andres Nocioni, SAC (3 years, $20M)
SF - Andrei Kirilenko, UTA (1 year, $17.8M)
PF - Paul Millsap, UTA (4 years, $34.5M)
PF - Elton Brand, PHI (3 years, $51M)
C - Sam Dalembert, PHI (1 year, $12.2M)

Using James Jones in a trade clears his guarantees for the next three years for $1.9M, $2.0 and $2.1M. For another team, those figures (3 years, $6M) could be a lot easier to swallow than the contracts they are currently are on the hook for. Taking on some of those guys might also bring a lottery pick Miami's way (all of the players listed are from lottery teams, except the Suns - Utah has New York's).

I included talent from Phoenix and Utah because Riley spent the closing hours of the trade deadline discussing possible off-season moves and while we assume that the intention is to do a sign and trade for Boozer or Stoudemire, we don't really know what they were discussing. Maybe Miami is interested in Leandro Barbosa or Paul Millsap because of their reasonable contracts, or even Richardson or Kirilenko for their bloated expiring contracts (options I would not expect the team to explore until later in free agency, if at all). Most likely, this off-season is about landing two these five guys:

1. LeBron James - the BiW due to his age, size and durability advantage over D-Wade.
2. Dwyane Wade - the BiW until his age, size and durability actually become an issue.
3. Chris Bosh - Pau Gasol II ...the best PF/C that primetime has never seen.
4. Yao Ming - the BiW (biggest in the world). The biggest mismatch you'll ever find.
5. Amar'e Stoudemire - 2nd team All-NBA Center this season.

Is there anybody on that list of available players through trade that would improve our chances of making this happen? I don't think so, but I will be paying attention when the market intensifies again around the draft. Something big will happen this off-season, we just don't know what that will be or when the first domino will fall.


  1. it may be because i am tired of all the same scenarios/names being thrown around, but i am hoping that riley just does something out of left field that no body at all could have expected. ... that is, after bringing lebron here........

  2. CP3 should probably be on that list the Hornets might be looking to dump his contract

  3. "PG - Gilbert Arenas, WAS (4years, $79M)"


  4. CP3 being dumped still seems crazy to me, but that would be the type of out of left field scenario that helium is referring to. I know that New Orleans's money problems are well documented, but I still think Chris Paul would be very hard to acquire without giving close to equal value in return.

  5. Actually Gil is owed over $80 million... I was doing quick math off of the numbers listed on

  6. lol even worst Cyrus Gil is garbage

  7. "3. Chris Bosh - Pau Gasol II ...the best PF/C that primetime has never seen."

    Lol I like that. I'm starting to prefer Bosh over Amar'e, though. In the short term, Amar'e is a better fit, but someone said earlier that he relies on his athleticism A LOT, which will be a factor in the 2nd half of his contract when he's on the wrong side of 30. I'd be okay with it, though.

    Btw, when you said Asylum, for some reason, I thought of Batman, so I was confused, lol.

  8. The Hornets are known for dumping good players the Marlins of the NBA

  9. CP3 won't be had this summer. If the Hornets start luke warm or badly, then their owners won't be overpaying for a team that's not making the playoffs.

    That might actually suit us better since that's when the Heat will have some talent to actually trade for Chris Paul. Maybe we trade Blake/Chalmers & Gay for CP3 & Posey & get a team of Cp3-Wade-Posey-Bosh/Amar'e-Joel?

  10. Haha... the Asylum... funny how Slledge gave me a GFY.

    Gilbert is way overpaid... I thought they would really consider terminating the contract, but they'll probably just trade him down the line to a team that cares not about cost.

    I agree that CP3 will become available during the season at best, because they need to have marketable players to fill the seats. During the season we will have talent to trade.

    Paul-Wade-Amar'e/Bosh is a great core, I think.

  11. I always preferred Bosh to Amar'e, but mainly because he is younger and I "think" he cares more about winning.

    I saw Amar'e partying hard with Shawn Marion after a tough game 1 loss to the Spurs in 2007 and it was kind of the last straw for me, because I was already concerned that he had not yet become an elite defender and rebounder in spite of his tremendous athletic gifts... does he care enough? I have my doubts.

  12. "Paul-Wade-Amar'e/Bosh is a great core, I think."

    Think you spelled "championship core" wrong, lol.

  13. Championship core... I like the sound of that. BTW, I am excited that Raja Bell wants to play for the Heat. So far we have these guys who might be willing to play for the minimum:

    Carlos Arroyo
    Jamaal Magloire
    Raja Bell

    It is all about upgrading the top of the roster, because it looks like we will have no problems filling out the roster with solid veterans and talented youngsters. Reminds me of the Celtics winning the title the year they put together the Big 3.

    If we build the Big 3, the championships will come :)

  14. Agreed. Raja wanting to be here surprised me though. Never knew he had any connections to Miami.

  15. GodsSon, Raja played at FIU, just like Arroyo.