Tuesday, May 18, 2010
And the #1 pick goes to...
Here is a look at the possible outcomes in the draft lottery. I am curious to see what happens, but ultimately I do not think it will have much of an impact on the Heat's off-season plans:
New Jersey (25%) - they would immediately step up their efforts to trade Keyon Dooling (1 year, $4M). Most expect they will dump Devin Harris, but I envision they would play Devin and John Wall together for long stretches considering they are both 6'3"/6'4". Their current starter at SG, Courtney Lee, would round out a solid guard rotation.
Minnesota (19.9%) - they would have to consider a trade of a prized lottery pick or drafting the other guy, Evan Turner. I don't know enough to make that decision, but I would assume that they would draft Wall anyway. Ricky Rubio would be closer to playing in the NBA for someone other than the T-Wolves.
Sacramento (15.6%) - they would draft John Wall and move the 6'6" rookie of the year Tyreke Evans to SG. This would be a potentially dynastic backcourt.
Golden State (10.4%) - they could legitimately leverage this pick to the highest bidder since they already have a very talented duo in the backcourt with Stephen Curry at the point and Monta Ellis at SG... not to mention the depth that sharpshooter Anthony Morrow brings to the table. They could draft either of the top two guys and put Monta Ellis back on the trading block, but there is no rush because Nellie loves small ball.
Washington (10.3%) - the Wizards would have a dynamic backcourt with either Wall or Turner in the fold. The tiebreaker always seems to go with the younger Wall, because he is the type of PG that every team would love to have, and at 6'4" is big enough to play in a backcourt with another combo guard like Gilbert Arenas (6'3"), who would eventually be traded. Drafting Turner would be the type of commitment to Gilbert Arenas that I think the Wizards would not be willing to make.
Philadelphia (5.3%) - finally a team that may have to leverage the pick or possibly trade a valuable youngster. The Sixers already have two young point guards with promise in Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday. If they drafted Wall, he would have to move to SG and force Igoudala to play SF. Actually, that isn't half bad.
Detroit (5.2%) - A top 2 pick for Detroit should create quite a log jam at the guard position for Detroit. They would likely find a way to deal either Richard Hamilton or Ben Gordon.
LA Clippers (2.3%) - landing Wall would be the perfect excuse to push Baron Davis out the door. I think they would start Wall at the 2 and bring Eric Gordon off the bench until they figure things out. Landing this pick would take away considerable cap space and take them out of the max free agent running, but they weren't really in it anyway, were they?
Utah Jazz (2.2%) - I think they actually draft Evan Turner because they already have Deron Williams at the point for the next decade and he needs help, not to be eventually replaced. I'm not sure the Jazz would undermine their stud PG like that. You can start Wall out of position at first, but eventually something has to give. Maybe they consider trade offers too.
Indiana Pacers (1.1%) - Their prayers would be answered and they would try even harder to rid themselves of TJ Ford (as if they aren't trying hard already).
New Orleans (0.8%) - Evan Turner makes a lot of sense for them. Otherwise they have major trading assets with Chris Paul, Darren Collison and John Wall at their disposal. Wow.
Memphis (0.7%) - With Mike Conley and OJ Mayo in place, I would have to think they would be open to dealing. However, the simple thing is to throw Wall into the mix and have three young guys that can play. I'm not convinced Conley is a bust, but he is not promising enough to not draft Wall.
Toronto (0.6%) - drafting Wall could be enough to get Bosh to consider coming back. This would shake Calderon free. Toronto has a gaping hole at SG, so Turner would be a nice pick too.
Houston (0.5%) - with Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin already in their backcourt, it would be interesting to see what they would do. I would draft Wall anyway and hold onto Brooks and Martin in order to have a great trio of guards.
What scenarios are most concerning to you as a Heat fan? Do you even care?