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Friday, April 16, 2010

Salary Cap Expected at $56 Million for 2010! What Now?

The league now projects the 2010-11 to be at $56.1 million, a full $3 million above my previous conservative projection. That $3 million will be a huge boost for the Heat, Knicks, Nets, Wizards, Bulls, Clippers and Timberwolves.

$16.8 D. Wade (his max contract starts at 30% of the cap)
$5.0 M. Beasley
$2.2 D. Cook
$1.9 J. Jones (assuming his release, deadline is June 30th)
$1.5 MIA First Round pick (estimate)
$0.8 M. Chalmers
$0.8 J. Anthony
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$28.0 for six roster spots
$0.5 empty slot cap hold
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$31.0 cap hold after the draft, releasing James Jones and re-signing Wade

Which leaves $25 million on the table. Every time a player is signed, you eliminate a $0.5 cap hold too, so that is a lot of money. Assuming they spend it on:

2 players = $26 million ... two players averaging $13M
3 players = $26.5 million ... three players averaging $8.8M
4 players = $27 million ... four players averaging $6.8M
5 players = $27.5 million ... five players averaging $5.5M (5 Mid-level exceptions!)
6 players = $28 million ... six players averaging $4.7M

Most likely, a couple of roster spots will be filled with minimum type salaries considering we have two second round draft picks, plus last year's two second round draft picks, plus the likes of Alade Aminu, Kenny Hasbrouck and Shavlick Randolph lined up in case we fail to attract veterans for the minimum before the season starts... I wouldn't be surprised to see some partially guaranteed contracts rounding out the roster as the roster reconstruction will probably not be over until next March after the trade deadline and the veterans have bought themselves out of unpleasant situations.

The first decision Riley will have to make is whether to cut James Jones or not. I'm not completely sold that he will be cut because 3 point shooting is very valuable in this league and there should be a market for him should we not require his services after all is said and done. He will cost an extra $3 million to keep, but would be a $5 million trade piece, which means we can acquire a contract of up to $6.25 million in return. Ultimately, I don't foresee a roster spot in his Miami future unless a big man like Yao Ming is acquired. Here is a look at the updated max contracts for likely Heat targets:

$19.6 J. Johnson (35% of the cap)
$17.3 A. Stoudemire (105% of last years salary)
$17.3 Y. Ming (105% of last years salary)
$16.8 D. Wade (30% of the cap)
$16.8 L. James (30% of the cap)
$16.8 C. Bosh (30% of the cap)
$16.8 C. Boozer (30% of the cap)
$14.0 R. Gay (25% of the cap) - restricted free agent


The future is looking really bright today. Let's beat the Celtics so LeBron can experience what playing against D-Wade in the playoffs is all about. The Heat may not have enough this year to knock off the Cavs, but it should be a nice preview of what is to come when Dwyane gets reinforcements... assuming LeBron wants to do his own thing. The Knicks, Nets and Bulls all have gained momentum today as well, but Miami is the biggest winner because their franchise player has been given $3 million more reasons to be optimistic about his team's rebuilding plan.

13 comments:

  1. I agree with you Adrian. $56 million is the highest that was expected, and we have a lot of cheap labor going into next season if you include DaeQuan, Joel (player option) and Mario (team option). We should have no problem rounding out roster spots 7-15... let's see what Pat can pull off to make us stronger at the top!

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  2. Anybody got an Espn insider?There's an article about bease being traded.

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  3. So who should sign with the extra money we'll have?

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  4. http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=5100713


    Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  5. First, I still can't believe we couldn't manage to lose that game vs. NJ. Mind-boggling.

    Second, at least the match-up w/ the Celtics is interesting. Hawks are a boring stupid team whose athleticism will not ultimately help them in the grind-it-out post-season.

    Third, I think we could have gone to the ECF facing Atlanta and then Orlando. But we would have lost to the Cavs. When Orlando faces Cleveland, the Magic may just take them and bring Lebron to S. Beach. So maybe the bball gods were shining on us...

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  6. Nice on the Celtics having flu-like symptoms... here is a long article on this matchup, but the guy picks the Celts in 5:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/columns/story?columnist=forsberg_chris&id=5099383

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  7. Celtics/Heat at least is interesting... Atlanta/Miami was kind of garbage.

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  8. Wade is Miami's to Lose:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5101041

    I think Wade stays in Miami and I think Miami will have options... correct me if I'm wrong fellas, but couldn't Miami sign Bosh and Josh Howard/Jamal Crawford (as an example, assuming they opt out) with their cap room and then turn around and call Phoenix and/or Utah and complete a previously discussed deal for Boozer or Stoudemire for let's say...

    Beasley
    Jones
    Cook
    First Round pick

    C - Amar'e/Bosh
    PF - Bosh/Boozer
    SF - Howard/Crawford
    SG - Wade
    PG - ?

    I think that is the way to build that dynasty over night... not sure about the specific players, but I just realized that Miami could have major leverage to get two max players to join Wade, because if one team doesn't take the Beasley package another one will and they cannot afford to lose their free agent outright unless they like losing... no need to tank a season to get a lottery pick if you can just pick up a #2 overall pick who is starting to come into his own, a 3 point champion who is still young and another first rounder. If Utah or Phoenix don't jump on it, I'm pretty sure Toronto will. The first round pick may not even be necessary if these guys are desperate enough not to lose their stud player for nothing,

    I think Beasley could end up being better than the max guy he gets traded for, but he has to step up this post season or he could be putting up 20 ppg in Toronto next year.

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  9. To clear up my previous post, Miami would pick up a max PF/C and a SF in the $8 million starting range to use up the rest of their cap space... they could also split it between UD and Dorell.

    Then, Miami would trade for the other free agent using a package of Beasley, Jones, Cook and a possible first rounder to sweeten the deal.

    You have to complete this deal after the cap space has been used, because you will be trading out close to 25% less than the incoming salary of the max free agent as a way to a bit over the cap.

    My idea would require keeping James Jones on the roster past June 30, so it is something to keep an eye on, I suppose.

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  10. who doesn't love james jones???

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  11. Day one of FA, you go fro Wade, LeBron , and Bosh...All Max Deals...

    The only thing that we'd have to do to get that cap space is to trade your 1st round pick and Beasley for any team willing to also take Cook and J.Jones.

    Can you imagine LeBron, Wade, and Bosh!!!

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  12. The trade would have to either A) Go to a team with Cap space or B) Go toward one of the players were bringing in as part of a S&T.

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  13. did not know Joe's max would be so expensive. Because of Bosh's comments, I doubt he comes here, but I would prefer him over Amar'e since...well, he costs less. Think the extra cap means we have another shot at getting Haywood at C or maybe Rudy Gay to be our 3rd option.

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