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Friday, April 16, 2010
Salary Cap Expected at $56 Million for 2010! What Now?
The league now projects the 2010-11 to be at $56.1 million, a full $3 million above my previous conservative projection. That $3 million will be a huge boost for the Heat, Knicks, Nets, Wizards, Bulls, Clippers and Timberwolves.
$16.8 D. Wade (his max contract starts at 30% of the cap)
$5.0 M. Beasley
$2.2 D. Cook
$1.9 J. Jones (assuming his release, deadline is June 30th)
$1.5 MIA First Round pick (estimate)
$0.8 M. Chalmers
$0.8 J. Anthony
$28.0 for six roster spots
$0.5 empty slot cap hold
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$31.0 cap hold after the draft, releasing James Jones and re-signing Wade
Which leaves $25 million on the table. Every time a player is signed, you eliminate a $0.5 cap hold too, so that is a lot of money. Assuming they spend it on:
2 players = $26 million ... two players averaging $13M
3 players = $26.5 million ... three players averaging $8.8M
4 players = $27 million ... four players averaging $6.8M
5 players = $27.5 million ... five players averaging $5.5M (5 Mid-level exceptions!)
6 players = $28 million ... six players averaging $4.7M
Most likely, a couple of roster spots will be filled with minimum type salaries considering we have two second round draft picks, plus last year's two second round draft picks, plus the likes of Alade Aminu, Kenny Hasbrouck and Shavlick Randolph lined up in case we fail to attract veterans for the minimum before the season starts... I wouldn't be surprised to see some partially guaranteed contracts rounding out the roster as the roster reconstruction will probably not be over until next March after the trade deadline and the veterans have bought themselves out of unpleasant situations.
The first decision Riley will have to make is whether to cut James Jones or not. I'm not completely sold that he will be cut because 3 point shooting is very valuable in this league and there should be a market for him should we not require his services after all is said and done. He will cost an extra $3 million to keep, but would be a $5 million trade piece, which means we can acquire a contract of up to $6.25 million in return. Ultimately, I don't foresee a roster spot in his Miami future unless a big man like Yao Ming is acquired. Here is a look at the updated max contracts for likely Heat targets:
$19.6 J. Johnson (35% of the cap)
$17.3 A. Stoudemire (105% of last years salary)
$17.3 Y. Ming (105% of last years salary)
$16.8 D. Wade (30% of the cap)
$16.8 L. James (30% of the cap)
$16.8 C. Bosh (30% of the cap)
$16.8 C. Boozer (30% of the cap)
$14.0 R. Gay (25% of the cap) - restricted free agent
The future is looking really bright today. Let's beat the Celtics so LeBron can experience what playing against D-Wade in the playoffs is all about. The Heat may not have enough this year to knock off the Cavs, but it should be a nice preview of what is to come when Dwyane gets reinforcements... assuming LeBron wants to do his own thing. The Knicks, Nets and Bulls all have gained momentum today as well, but Miami is the biggest winner because their franchise player has been given $3 million more reasons to be optimistic about his team's rebuilding plan.