Lucky Leprechauns 85 Miami 76

I am tired, I know I have to get some sleep, but instead I am re-watching the Celtics-Heat game 1 to give this blog the kind of playoff effort it deserves.

Tony Allen was a bull-dozer, recklessly running over Carlos Arroyo on his way to a transition slam dunk on one play and then bowling Udonis Haslem over on a sweet dish to Big Baby Davis who proceeded to get swatted at the rim by Joel Anthony. Their energy man off the bench should have been in early foul trouble...

Mario Chalmers was too aggressive trying to steal the ball from Tony Allen, which resulted in him getting beat off of the dribble more than once. Mario creates some turnovers, but after watching Ray Allen beat him off the dribble, drawing two fouls, I have accepted the reality that his quick hands are not enough. I can't help but miss Rafer Alston... I think he could have helped this team have better possessions on both ends of the court. Raise your hand if you think Orlando makes the NBA Finals last year with Mario at the point.

Kevin Garnett's long arms created many turnovers from Heat players who got themselves into tough situations... whether they were up in the air looking to pass, stuck on a corner or under the basket, Garnett was a disruptive force. I hope he is suspended for game 2, he really is a catalyst for their defense. Hypothetically, Rasheed Wallace should be able to step in and do a lot of the same things, but his own coach, Doc Rivers, only trusted him enough to play him 13 minutes today, so it could mean more minutes for Big Baby Davis... this should neutralize their advantage in the front court enough to increase our chances to steal one in Boston. I think I now know why Doc keeps Rasheed on the bench - he's the only Celtic that the refs can't stand. Only 9 non-Rasheed fouls were called on the Celtics all game long.

Wade was fantastic in pushing the Heat to a 59-45 lead with 7 1/2 to go in the 3rd quarter. You could feel self doubt creeping into the building, but give credit to that crowd and their team because they responded by turning up the volume and intensity. The energy was undeniable... a definite 6th man effect as the Celtics all of the sudden started playing like champions and closed the quarter down only two.

Dwyane was then held without a field goal in the following 16 minutes after he helped Miami build that 14 point lead. This time span saw Miami's fourteen point lead become an eight point deficit with just 3 minutes to go. When I complained about this to a fellow blogger, he assured me that he was being double and triple teamed and that he had no choice. However, in the last three minutes he was able to hoist up four shots, connecting on two of them.

The team clearly let their star player down, with only Quentin Richardson breaking double digits, scoring all of his 15 points in the first three quarters. However, Dwyane Wade needs to channel his inner Allen Iverson and take over the shooting responsibilities when the going gets tough and nobody's got it going. You cannot take 16 minutes to decide that you have to do something about it, after a 22 point swing already occurred.

Overall, I have to give the team an A for effort. All they could do was keep the game close and hope to steal it at the end. Tonight they could only muster 10 fourth quarter points and obviously that wasn't going to cut it. One can only hope that the proper adjustments can be made, because the team that carries the lead at the half and at the end of three should usually come out victorious.

Salary Cap Expected at $56 Million for 2010! What Now?

The league now projects the 2010-11 to be at $56.1 million, a full $3 million above my previous conservative projection. That $3 million will be a huge boost for the Heat, Knicks, Nets, Wizards, Bulls, Clippers and Timberwolves.

$16.8 D. Wade (his max contract starts at 30% of the cap)

$5.0 M. Beasley

$2.2 D. Cook

$1.9 J. Jones (assuming his release, deadline is June 30th)

$1.5 MIA First Round pick (estimate)

$0.8 M. Chalmers

$0.8 J. Anthony

---------------------------------------------

$28.0 for six roster spots

$0.5 empty slot cap hold

$0.5 " "

$0.5 " "

$0.5 " "

$0.5 " "

$0.5 " "

---------------------------------------------

$31.0 cap hold after the draft, releasing James Jones and re-signing Wade

Which leaves $25 million on the table. Every time a player is signed, you eliminate a $0.5 cap hold too, so that is a lot of money. Assuming they spend it on:

2 players = $26 million ... two players averaging $13M

3 players = $26.5 million ... three players averaging $8.8M

4 players = $27 million ... four players averaging $6.8M

5 players = $27.5 million ... five players averaging $5.5M (5 Mid-level exceptions!)

6 players = $28 million ... six players averaging $4.7M

Most likely, a couple of roster spots will be filled with minimum type salaries considering we have two second round draft picks, plus last year's two second round draft picks, plus the likes of Alade Aminu, Kenny Hasbrouck and Shavlick Randolph lined up in case we fail to attract veterans for the minimum before the season starts... I wouldn't be surprised to see some partially guaranteed contracts rounding out the roster as the roster reconstruction will probably not be over until next March after the trade deadline and the veterans have bought themselves out of unpleasant situations.

The first decision Riley will have to make is whether to cut James Jones or not. I'm not completely sold that he will be cut because 3 point shooting is very valuable in this league and there should be a market for him should we not require his services after all is said and done. He will cost an extra $3 million to keep, but would be a $5 million trade piece, which means we can acquire a contract of up to $6.25 million in return. Ultimately, I don't foresee a roster spot in his Miami future unless a big man like Yao Ming is acquired. Here is a look at the updated max contracts for likely Heat targets:

$19.6 J. Johnson (35% of the cap)

$17.3 A. Stoudemire (105% of last years salary)

$17.3 Y. Ming (105% of last years salary)

$16.8 D. Wade (30% of the cap)

$16.8 L. James (30% of the cap)

$16.8 C. Bosh (30% of the cap)

$16.8 C. Boozer (30% of the cap)

$14.0 R. Gay (25% of the cap) - restricted free agent

The future is looking really bright today. Let's beat the Celtics so LeBron can experience what playing against D-Wade in the playoffs is all about. The Heat may not have enough this year to knock off the Cavs, but it should be a nice preview of what is to come when Dwyane gets reinforcements... assuming LeBron wants to do his own thing. The Knicks, Nets and Bulls all have gained momentum today as well, but Miami is the biggest winner because their franchise player has been given $3 million more reasons to be optimistic about his team's rebuilding plan.

Bringing down the Celtics

I will be the first to admit this is not my preferred matchup. I think you would have to be nuts to want the Celtics. Either that, or you have to be Dwyane Wade, who has no reason to fear anyone. The Heat supporting cast has reason to be optimistic too, because they all bring something to the table and have been gelling while the Celtics have not as evidenced by the way they followed a 23-5 start by finishing a very mediocre 27-27.

It is hard to believe that this Celtics team is going to demolish the Miami Heat as quite simply, this group has never demolished anyone.

In 2008, the #1 seed Boston Celtics came in with a big, bad 66-16 record only to require a game 7 to dispose of the 37-45 Atlanta Hawks (who were gelling thanks to the veteran experience of Mike Bibby - a mid-season addition) and the 45-37 Cleveland Cavaliers, who I contend were a weaker team than your Miami Heat, take a look back and judge for yourself:

Starters:

C - Ilgauskas

PF - B. Wallace

SF - L. James

SG - S. Pavlovic

PG - D. West

Bench:

Joe Smith

W. Szczerbiak

A. Varejao

Damon Jones

In game 7, LeBron went off for 45 points and could only get double digits from one teammate (Delonte West, who pitched in 15 in 45 minutes) as the Cavaliers fell just short of pulling the upset. Boston would go on to defeat the Pistons and Lakers 4-2 to finish their championship run.

Last year, the 62 win Celtics were playing without KG and required a game 7 to eliminate the 41 win Chicago Bulls, who were coming into the postseason on a high note after acquiring former University of Miami star forward John Salmons in a mid-season deal (side note: he could become that second All-Star caliber addition Pat Riley has been talking about adding this off-season). Boston then lost a 7 game series to the eventual Eastern Conference champion, Orlando Magic. In their 21 point game 7 loss Boston's bench was exposed, with a combined 12 points from Eddie House, Stephon Marbury, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen and Mikki Moore.

This year, Boston seems to be healthy and on paper they have a much improved bench with Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, Marquis Daniels, Michael Finley, Shelden Williams and Glen Davis (who was forced into the starting lineup in 2009 due to Garnett's injury) joining Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine. However, they won't make you forget the days of Sam Cassell (savvy veteran point guard), James Posey (3 point specialist and perimeter defensive stopper) and PJ Brown (Udonis with much more size). There is a lot of swagger, but don't expect Miami's reserves to be intimidated. Their top contributor, Rasheed Wallace, is providing 9 points and 4 rebounds on 41% shooting.

Boston may get a spark from their bench a few games, but their real advantage lies in the starting lineup where they boast 4 All-Stars and a physical center who rarely stands out as a weak link. Miami, on the other hand, only has one consistently good starter. This matchup should bring out the best from the other four guys (also known as the Titos) who will all be hungry to get the monkey off their back and re-establish their reputations. Michael Beasley is disgusted that his averages are just shy of 15 points and 7 rebounds, but truth be told, KG is averaging a Beasley/JO-like 14 and 7 in 30 minutes a game so I expect Miami's frontcourt to hold their own. Boston's lineup no longer boasts a single 20 point scorer, but I see that as one of their strengths as their lightning quick point guard, Rajon Rondo, has done a wonderful job of keeping all their weapons involved, as evidenced by his 9.8 assists per game. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will get plenty of open looks from beyond the arc, they will have to hit those shots if they hope to win.

For Miami to win this series, they will need the bench to shine. Udonis Haslem is the captain of that unit and has really helped turn them around. We are now seeing great play (and confidence) from Dorell Wright, who will be counted to defend 3 positions and knock down the 3 ball, which he has done at a rate of 39% for the season. After those two, there is a considerable drop off as former starter Mario Chalmers has failed to take his game to the next level. The other member of the bench unit is Joel Anthony, who is an elite shotblocker who seems a lot more confident around the basket. The only other players who are likely to see action in important minutes are center Jamaal Magloire (a former All-Star built for the physicality of this series) and sharp shooter James Jones (41% from the arc for the year).

I expect Miami to steal a game at the TD Center, what I am more concerned with is their ability to 3-0 in the home games. If they do, they will win the series 4-2. If they cannot do that, they will be forced to win game 7 on the road. Miami is a much better team than they were last year at this time, but I only give them a 42% chance of winning this matchup, due to not having the home court advantage.

Pistons @ Heat preview

The video above is the preview from the Pistons website, but I don't believe Detroit is actually gonna try to win the game. The home victory against Atlanta was a nice gift for the faithful season ticket holders that have suffered through this disappointing season, but watch for Detroit to give more minutes to their youngsters and find a way to lose even if Miami does not bring their best effort. Their two game winning streak has ruined their standing as the third worst team in the league, they have to stop the bleeding and start losing. This is insanity for them, of course they are the team that found a way to blow the #2 pick in the 2003 draft. Here's a look at the worst teams in the league and their odds of winning the #1 pick:

25% New Jersey Nets (11-67)

19.9% Minnesota Timberwolves (15-63)

13.8% Washington Wizards (24-54)

13.7% Golden State Warriors (24-54)

8.8% Sacramento Kings (25-54)

6.3% Detroit Pistons (25-53)

4.3% Philadelphia (26-52)

2.8% Los Angeles Clippers (27-52)

Is Miami Better Than We Think?

I just found an article on NBA.com which addresses one of the things that has me feeling a lot better about Miami's chances and the work that Spoelstra has put in this season:

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/john_schuhmann/04/08/numbers.game/index.html

It shows that Miami is a top 5 defensive team along with Orlando, Charlotte, Milwaukee and Boston. The article shows statistics that prove that defensive oriented teams tend to do better than offensive oriented teams. While I agree that these numbers prove that Milwaukee, Charlotte and Miami are not flukes and will be ready to play D when it matters most, I was more pleased when I took a closer look at our unbalanced team (defined as a team that has a gap bigger than 10 spots between their offensive and defensive efficiency rankings).

Miami is tied for 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, but is just 19th on the offensive side. The cool thing is that when you look at the best teams in the NBA, they have large numbers when you subtract their defensive efficiency rating from their offensive efficiency rating:

Orlando: 9.0

Cleveland: 8.1

LA Lakers: 5.3

Phoenix: 5.3

San Antonio: 5.2

Utah: 5.0

Boston: 4.7

Atlanta: 4.5

Denver: 4.4

Ok. City: 4.3

Portland: 4.3

Miami: 3.6

Dallas: 3.4

The middle of the pack does not:

Charlotte: 1.4

Milwaukee: 1.2

Houston: -0.9

Toronto: -1.7

Memphis: -2.3

Chicago: -2.4

New Orl.: -2.6

I believe Coach Spoelstra spent most of the season neglecting the offensive side of the ball because he was busy getting the guys to buy into winning with defense. Recently there have been signs of life on the offensive end, with the reinsertion of Carlos Arroyo into the lineup, increased opportunities for Quentin (he's shooting more 3's and posting up as well) and feeding the big man - Jermaine O'Neal. We are even seeing more offense from Haslem, Wright, Chalmers and Joel Anthony. This trend will have to continue for Miami to advance to the second round of the playoffs.

As far as doing the impossible, I am not holding my breath, but I think they have more in common with the 2005-06 NBA champs than we may realize. Let me break it down position by position, using rounded up per 36 season averages:

'06 Dwyane Wade

25 pts, 5 rebs, 6 asts, 2 stls

vs.

'10 Dwyane Wade

26 pts, 5 rebs, 7 asts, 2 stls

Even

'06 Shaquille O'Neal

24 pts, 11 rebs, 2 blks

vs.

'10 Jermaine O'Neal

17 pts, 9 rebs, 2 blks

Edge 2006

'06 Antoine Walker

16 pts, 7 rebs, 3 asts, 2 3pts

vs.

'10 Michael Beasley

18 pts, 8 rebs, 2 asts, 0 3pts

Even

'06 Alonzo Mourning

14 pts, 10 rebs, 5 blks

vs.

'10 Joel Anthony

6 pts, 7 rebs, 3 blks

Edge 2006

'06 Jason Williams

14 pts, 6 asts, 1 stl, 2 3pts

vs.

'10 Carlos Arroyo

10 pts, 5 asts, 1 stl, 0 3pts

Edge 2006

'06 Udonis Haslem

11 pts, 9 rebs, 1 stl

vs.

'10 Udonis Haslem

13 pts, 10 rebs, 1 stl

Edge 2010

'06 James Posey

9 pts, 6 rebs, 2 asts, 1 stl, 2 3pts

vs.

'10 Quentin Richardson & Dorell Wright combo

12 pts, 6 rebs, 2 asts, 1 stl, 2 3pts

Edge 2010

'06 Gary Payton

10 pts, 4 rebs, 4 asts, 1 stl, 1 3pt

vs.

'10 Mario Chalmers

10 pts, 3 rebs, 5 asts, 2 stls, 2 3pt

Even

'06 Jason Kapono

11 pts, 4 rebs, 2 asts, 1 3pt

vs.

'10 James Jones

10 pts, 3 rebs, 1 asts, 1 stl, 3 3pt

Even

Obviously, the 2005-06 was a better team. Their production from the Center position allowed them to play inside outside and created a lot of open 3 pointers for their shooters. This team does not create as many open looks from beyond the arc, but does not hesitate to shoot them when they are open. In 2006, Antoine Walker played the role of the maddeningly inconsistent forward chucker and this year Michael Beasley has played that role. Many Miami fans turned on Antoine in 2006, even booing him at times, but Pat Riley found a way to get great production out of him. If Spoelstra finds a way to get great production from Beasley, who has lost the faith of many Heat faithful, I wonder how far Wade can carry this group of guys.

No JO, no problem?

Tonight Miami squares off against the Indiana Pacers without the services of former Pacers franchise player Jermaine O'Neal, who is still experiencing swelling in his knee. A win would give Miami its first ever season series sweep over Indiana, after winning the first three match ups by an average of 24.7 points.

Joel Anthony will get the start and the team actually has a 9-3 record when he is filling in for an injured starter. Miami broke the 14 game losing streak at Indiana earlier this season and will need tonight's win to extend their current 6 game winning streak. Indiana will be trying to protect their 8 game home winning streak. They are playing their best basketball of the year right now too, having won 6 of their last 7 games overall.

Miami should win tonight's game easily if they can hold Indiana under 90 points - Miami has an impressive 24-2 record when it accomplishes that goal. Miami is 4-0 with the tonight's starting lineup. Rest up JO, we can let the little homies ride on the Indiana Pacers.

Erik Spoelstra named Eastern Conference Coach of the month

I'm glad Miami's coach got recognition after his team finished March 12-3. The team's performance in this month in the wake of falling under .500 and into the #9 spot in the East is nothing short of exceptional. The Miami Heat and coach Spoelstra will have their fair share of detractors, considering the up and down nature of this season, but this upswing is certainly award worthy.

A 4-0 record over their main rivals for playoff positions during this month showed that all of the talking about energy, grit, and defensive disposition has not fallen on deaf ears with his players. The guys stepped up and put Milwaukee, Charlotte, Toronto and Chicago back in their place. Miami now trails Milwaukee by just half a game and could overtake them for the fifth spot with a strong finish.

I am not yet ready to crown Spo as the next great young coach. It could be a kiss of death anyway as guys like Doc Rivers, Avery Johnson, and Byron Scott were fired not too long after winning the NBA Coach of the Year award early in their coaching careers. However, I am starting to believe he could be a good defensive coach like Cleveland's Mike Brown (last year's coach of the year). Miami currently boasts the NBA's 2nd best defense in terms of points average allowed (94.1), a half point behind Larry Brown's Charlotte Bobcats. You can bet leading the league in this category was one of the team's goals heading into the season.

Defense is still the way to win in this league as is evidenced by the fact that half the league gives up more than 100 points per game, and out of those 15 teams only Phoenix and Denver are playoff bound. Toronto is still fighting off Chicago, who along with Detroit stand as the only teams holding opponents under 100 points a game on the outside looking in for the league's 16 playoff spots.

In recent games we have seen better offense from our team, like Jermaine O'Neal and Quentin Richardson getting post-ups. All of these things that the bloggers and the players have been begging for are starting to happen on game days. My guess is that the coach knew all along what his players strengths and weaknesses were, but was turning a deaf ear on their pleas until they started to pay attention to his message. If all players not named Wade take the approach of earning their offensive opportunities, then this season could yet exceed expectations.

Congratulations Coach Spoelstra, I hope this is a sign of things to come.

You Be the GM

Assuming a $53 million Salary cap for 2010, Miami has the ability to retain all of its rotation players, sign two first round draft picks and sign a free agent for around $10 million, assuming we are able to re-sign our guys for reasonable first year salaries as part of a long term deal. Just take a look at James Jones's contract to figure out how Riley can pull that off.

Jones was signed to a five year deal with partial guarantees in years 3-5, which made up for the lower starting salary (in comparison to his other offers) and allowed Miami to stay under the luxury tax in that season.

Signed

$4.1M Michael Beasley

$1.8M Daequan Cook

Partial Guarantee

$1.9M James Jones ($4.7M full salary)

Player Option

$16.4M Dwyane Wade (max deal at $16.6M)

$.9 M Joel Anthony

Team Option

$.9 M Mario Chalmers

Unrestricted Free Agents (with hypothetical starting salaries on their new deals)

$6 M Jermaine O'Neal

$4 M Udonis Haslem

$3 M Dorell Wright

$2 M Quentin Richardson

$1 M Jamaal Magloire

$1 M Carlos Arroyo

First Round Draft Picks

$1.5M Toronto #1 Pick (15th)

$1.2M Miami #1 Pick (18th)

That's $42.7M committed to 14 players (assuming they are all brought back, including James Jones), leaving $10.3M available for one player. The idea then is to put your thinking caps on, using these figures, and make decisions on these players. Who would you keep, who would you trade and who would you sign and for how much?

Here is a complete list of all of the restricted and unrestricted free agents in 2010 and 2011. It could be important to keep in mind who will be available in 2011 also:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-10-11

Dissecting the Race for the 5th and 6th spots in the East

You will read many places that Miami is in the 6th spot in the East and trail Milwaukee by just a game for the 5th seed. This is only a half truth as Miami is a half game ahead of Charlotte with a game in hand and has as many victories as the Bucks with two games in hand.

When taking a look at these standings from here on out, what you'll really want to do is look at the loss column and keep in mind that Miami will have to end the season with one less loss than both Milwaukee and Charlotte, considering they have lost the season series to both clubs.

When you look at the standings in that way, the Heat is one game behind Charlotte and three games behind Milwaukee, with those teams having one and two more games remaining on their plates respectively.

Miami has all but secured a playoff spot as they hold a five game lead in the loss column on 9th place Chicago by way of winning the season series 3 games to 1. Up next is a home game against the 8th seed Toronto, who with a victory would close the gap with Miami to one in the loss column, as they would take the season series 3 games to 1.

After the Toronto game, Miami closes the season with eight games against teams whose playoff hopes were dashed in December. Anything can happen, but the glass is starting to look half full again.

Good Luck Chuck?

Today Charles Barkley and the rest of the TNT crew will be at the United Center to provid the play by play analysis of the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls game. Earlier this season, Sir Charles compared the Miami Heat to the Jackson 5 saying Wade was Michael Jackson and the supporting cast was just a bunch of Tito's. This caught the attention of Udonis Haslem and Michael Beasley who spoke up after a couple of victories when Dwyane was injured.

"I'm mad,'' Beasley said. "I feel like I'm not getting that respect. I'm not saying I've won a championship or I'm scoring 40 a night. It's just disrespect, to us as a team. I read daily how Dwyane Wade needs help and how he has no talent on his team. I strongly disagree. I'm trying to show not only my team but the league I can be relied on day in and day out.''

Udonis also said something about Charles remembering their names now and then the Heat went on to go on a prolongued slump which helped drop them all the way to number 9 in the standings. The lesson learned seems to be to just stay quiet and do your job and allow your play to do the talking.

Today, the nation will be watching and 2008's #2 draft pick will have a great opportunity to prove himself in front of one of his loudest critics while playing opposite that drafts #1 pick Derrick Rose. Michael is no longer mentioned in the same breath with Derrick, but as the guy that was picked ahead of OJ Mayo, Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez (guys that Pat Riley was tempted to draft).

While those guys have proven worthy of being picked #2 overall, I think Mike should be offended and take advantage of this opportunity to shut the critics up. A look at Derrick Rose's All-Star numbers vesus Michael's "Tito" numbers show the gap to be a bit overstated.

Derrick Rose
20.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.8 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.3 bpg, 2.8 to in 36 mpg

Michael Beasley
15.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.6 bpg, 1.6 to in 30 mpg

Raise your hand if you knew Mike averaged more steals per game than the mighty Derrick Rose? That statistic actually shocked me. I love Rose's points, rebounds and assists numbers and think he is an impressive player. I actually was one of the first to get on the Rose bandwagon back when Michael was the favorite for the #1 pick (prior to the NCAA tournament), but take a look at what Mike's numbers would be if adjusted to 36 mpg (20% increase in playing time):

18.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.2 spg, o.7 bpg, 1.9 to

These numbers seem to suggest that Michael is more Jermaine than Tito, can he prove it to the world starting today? Maybe Charles Barkley's presence courtside will provide extra motivation and be some sort of good luck charm for a player that sometimes seems to lack focus.

Projecting the 2010 Free Agent Market

With each passing day, we get closer to the 2010 off-season. Assuming $53.6 is the cap, the teams with the most space according to NBA.com:

TEAM	SALARY	AMOUNT UNDER
New York	$21,571,737	$32,028,263
New Jersey	$27,170,659	$26,429,341
Miami	$32,254,326	$21,345,674
Washington	$34,454,130	$18,943,379
Chicago	$35,662,116	$17,937,884
Sacramento	$36,454,130	$17,145,870
L.A. Clippers	$38,235,273	$15,364,727
Minnesota	$41,004,156	$12,595,844
Oklahoma City	$42,104,151	$11,495,849

It would take a minor miracle for Miami to make a surprise run to the NBA Finals, so let's take another look ahead at the reconstruction process. Below is my (completely premature and amateur) prediction for the major 2010 free agents. With teams like New York, Washington, Chicago, and Sacramento clearing more cap room for this off-season, I am projecting more players to opt out and test the waters:


LeBron James.....................Cavs (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Dwayne Wade.....................Heat (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Chris Bosh..........................Raptors (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Amare Stoudemire.............Suns (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Dirk Nowitzki.....................Mavs (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Joe Johnson.......................Hawks (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Yao Ming............................Rockets (opts out, re-signs for the max)
Carlos Boozer.....................Knicks (signs for the max)
Rudy Gay...........................Grizzlies (re-signs for the max)
Paul Pierce.........................Celtics (exercises $21 million player option)
Ray Allen............................Celtics (re-signs for 3 years, $21 million)
David Lee...........................Thunder (signs for 5 years, $60 million)
Michael Redd.....................Knicks (opts out, signs for 5 years, $80 million)
Brendan Haywood.............Mavs (re-signs for 6 years, $70 million)
Shaquille O'Neal.................Cavs (re-signs for 2 years, $20 million)
Josh Howard......................Wizards (team picks up $11.8 million option)
Kenyon Martin...................Nuggets (exercises $16.5 million player option)
Al Harrington.....................Suns (signs for 5 years, $35 million)
Tracy McGrady...................Clippers (signs for 1 year, $10 million)
Luis Scola...........................Rockets (re-signs for 5 years, $40 million)
Marcus Camby...................Blazers (signs for 2 years, $16 million)
Jermaine O'Neal................Heat (re-signs for 5 years, $40 million)

Mathematically speaking, Miami would rather bring in a free agent via sign and trade. This would allow the team to hold onto any and all of its players, sign its draft picks and use the mid-level ($6 million) and bi-annual exception ($2 million).

I will be dreaming of signing LeBron, Bosh, or Stoudemire with the rest of you but if nobody moves I will take solace in the fact that we retained the best player in franchise history and try not to pout too much about what could have been. With Wade under contract for another six years it should be pretty easy to take the next step forward and become a contender again even if the dream of building a dynasty in Miami does not take root.

Orlando and Miami a 2 Versus 7 preview?

Miami has a big home game coming up against Charlotte if it wants to overtake them for the Eastern Conference's 6th seed. The Bobcats will be on the second game of a back to back that starts tonight in Atlanta, so there is reason to be optimistic. Two straight losses by the Cats would give Miami a 1/2 game lead on them.

However, should Miami remain in their current position, the #2 seed Orlando would be the first round opponent. At first glance it is a matchup we want no part of. However, JO seems to play with a lot more fire when he is up against Dwight. Also, the addition of Vince and subtraction of Hedo has made them a lot better of a match up for us, because it inserts two knuckle heads into the Orlando lineup in Mr. Carter and Matt Barnes. Rashard Lewis is not a true power forward, so they only have a noticeable size advantage when they go to their bench... assuming Dwight is kept relatively in check.

As frustrating as it has been to watch Miami fall behind at home to the Spurs and Magic and then come up short with their exhilarating comebacks, the mere fact that they have comebacks in them when other teams would have already packed it in is encouraging.

If Miami does want to avoid Orlando and Cleveland in the first round, they need to get hot right now as Charlotte, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Toronto are four of the next five opponents, along with the Nets. The final 8 games of the season will be against teams that are way under .500.

The ideal scenario seems to be the 6th seed and a first round match-up with Atlanta (who is battling Boston for playoff positioning), followed by a series with Orlando. However, I don't sense that Miami is afraid facing the Magic in the first round. They were one play away from taking the series 3-1. Hopefully Spoelstra and his boys put in some overtime on those late game scenarios that have seen potential victories against Orlando, Boston, Cleveland and Los Angeles (among many others) turn into gut wrenching defeats. This team has a hard enough road ahead without giving games away at the end.

Who is Kenny Hasbrouck?

The Miami Heat filled Rafer Alston's spot on the roster with rookie Kenny Hasbrouck out of Siena. Kenny went undrafted and was brought into Heat camp in the offseason, but was cut prior to the pre-season during injury.

He is described as a combo guard who is good at attacking the rim. According to coach Spoelstra he was a hard guy to cut and they have already seen improvement in his jumpshot since last summer. This claim is backed up by his numbers for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers 50.4 FG%, 38.1% 3PT%, and 80.6 FT%... a steady climb from his college averages of 44.5%/37.6%/74.0%.

His D-League averages of 16.9 pts, 2.9 ast, 1.6 stl suggest he could be a scorer off the bench with good ball hawking ability, but not much of a distributor. It will be interesting to get a look at him in live action, but this week's schedule is not very friendly.

Here is a story on Kenny and his family from last year's tourney, seems like a solid citizen at least... hopefully his play matches his attitude:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taY2slnEaRI

Bullying the Bulls B team

Derrick Rose has been ruled out of tonight's game, joining Joakim Noah and Luol Deng on the injured list. Miami will enter this game without the services of Dorell Wright, Rafer Alston (still technically on the roster) and Michael Beasley is a gametime decision.

If I were to guess tonight's Chicago Bulls starting lineup it would be:

C - B. Miller
PF - T. Gibson
SF - H. Warrick
SG - R. Murray
PG - K. Hinrich

It is not a scary lineup, but I wouldn't sleep on them. Miami will need to come out agressive as this is a MUST WIN game for the depleted Bulls, who still have to travel to Memphis and Dallas before coming home to welcome Cleveland.

If Mike Beasley sits out the game, I believe Udonis Haslem should be rewarded with a start. I really do not understand why Spoelstra is so hell bent on not messing with the rotation. It doesn't work anyway, shake it up, something good could happen.

In the only two games that Beasley has not been available, Joel Anthony was given the start. I really don't have a problem with this decision, because I believe he will get the job done, but I can't help but get flashbacks to last season's Diawara at the 4 debacle.

The Heat must develop a killer instinct and send Chicago reeling towards a 7th consecutive loss. A convincing victory against a desperate, albeit shorthanded, Chicago team will go a long ways towards re-igniting the passion and fire that this unit had when they came out of the gates with a 6-1 record.

Out of respect for those who are superstitious I will not predict the outcome, but I see Wade getting the better of Hinrich and company. He will go for the kill and try to earn some 4th quarter rest again.

Are you serious Dorell?

Really, Dorell Wright, Really? DUI? Why don't these guys learn? I guess he figured Arroyo's run in with the law was rewarded with a starting position. Honestly, what happened with Arroyo, was he drunk too? He refused to take a breathalyzer and took a beating for it, but he is still innocent until proven guilty so props to him, I guess. However, shouldn't a player get suspended for resisting arrest?

Back to the topic of drunk driving. It has gone too far. Am I the only person who saw Al Jefferson get a two game suspension for it and thought "That's it?". I remember my neighbor losing his job due to a DUI. Not in the NBA, two game suspension. Granted a two game suspension is a lot of money, but it is 1/41 of their annual paycheck and less than a week suspension. What sort of message is that sending? If the NBA really Cares about their communities they will make these off the court issues a priority in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Dorell's driving record is terrible, having his license suspended as recently as this past October. I think he should get a five game suspension. More than the T-Wolves, but not enough to drive him out of town ala James Posey and the body fat suspension. He is a free agent at the conclusion of this season and if the front office didn't trade him for a first round pick it is because they still value him.

No Place Like Home

The second game of this six game home stand is tomorrow against the Chicago Bulls. The same Bulls that were victimized by Wade's heroics last year in a double OT game that prompted him to jump on the scorer's table and yell "This is my house!" after sinking a dramatic buzzer beater off of a steal.

Go ahead and take a trip down memorable lane, I'll wait:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dTfZI2J6vo

My favorite part is the post game interview, where he says he was gonna call the timeout. I would love for Wade to remind Chicago that Miami is his house once again. Like the Charlotte game, this one is worth two - A Miami win and a Chicago loss. Well, maybe three because Chicago is like Wade's ex that wants him to come back, you know?

Chicago has fallen one game out of the playoffs thanks to a five game losing streak. Tonight they start a back to back at Orlando and then Miami. Realistically, we could land a knock them into the brink of submission with a 7 game losing streak. It doesn't stop there though, because they will leave Miami and try to regroup for another back to back at Memphis and Dallas. Did I mention Chicago is 12-20 away from home? Then they get to go home to face Cleveland, so they could be in the middle of a 10 game losing streak if they don't catch a break.

The Bulls really have no one to blame but themselves for this mess. It is their lust for Wade that helped them decide that dumping Tyrus Thomas onto the Charlotte Bobcats and John Salmons onto the Milwaukee Bucks would be a good idea. Sure, they cleared the landscape a bit for the off-season, but they muddled their playoff picture this season and deserve to be on the outside looking in when the season ends.

What they don't deserve is to land the #1 pick in the lottery again.

2010 Draft: Searching for A Few Good Men

I spent some time looking at guys that aren't consensus early lottery picks, because we cannot make the playoffs and draft Evan Turner, John Wall, Wesley Johnson, Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins. It is extremely doubtful that we will be able to make a deal to be able to snatch up one of those guys, so I will ignore them for now.

The first guy that caught my eye was Charles Garcia, from Seattle U (a program that is in its second season in Division I), who was the very first to declare for the draft, check out his athleticism:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdRiLfs9OKQ

They compare him to a cross between Lamar Odom and Andray Blatche. He leads the NCAA by going to the free throw stripe 14 times a game, but he only makes 50% of those shots. He also is a turnover machine which could scare away Miami, who otherwise likes tall and versatile forwards.

Another guy that impressed me with his athleticism is Larry Sanders, from VCU. His shot blocking reminds me of Dwight Howard - although he doesn't jump as high, he has a 7'7" wingspan. Put him in the weight room with with Zo and this guy could be our center of the future. He seems worthy of a first round pick:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0t3iKQCkzY&feature=related

A more classic option at the center position is the Nigerian born Florida State Seminole Solomon Alibi. He is 7'1" 251 lbs and also a shot blocker and a project. He gets compared with Hasheem Thabeet and should be available in the mid to late first round as he also needs to develop his game and add considerable muscle to his frame. You can get a glimpse of him in this college feature:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0t3iKQCkzY&feature=related

In my research, I have not found any first round grades on point guards besides John Wall, so expect that position to be filled elsewhere. These 3 guys are high on potential, but none would likely crack the rotation in 2010. I have a feeling figuring out what Miami will do with these draft picks will not be easy. Do they want to keep them or ship them? Do they want to target specific positions or best available? Are they drafting on potential or NBA readiness? I am most certainly confused, I hope our front office isn't.

SPOntaneous Combustion

Spontaneous Combustion is a term used to describe cases of the burning of a living human body without any apparent external source of ignition.

SPOntaneous Combustion is a term to describe cases where our team is on fire and then they burn out thanks to Spoelstra's mindless rotations and motivational techniques.

Chalk up this loss in Charlotte as another SPOntaneous Combustion.

A Beasley Trade is Inevitable, unless...

...he trades his nickname "B-Easy" for "The Beast". There was no hurrah for Michael article from me after his 14 point eruption the other night, because it isn't surprising. The guy is a "PTP'er", a "Diaper Dandy", and all of those great things that Dick Vitale would say... but we need him to grow up or get out of the way.

For my liking, Michael, DaeQuan, Dorell and Mario are "on the bubble" (another March Madness reference) for the 2010 Miami Heat roster. It may sound really harsh, but there comes a point when the finger pointing and excuse making needs to end. Michael has all the tools to score inside and outside, however, his attitude is "take what the defense gives me" or "Be Easy".

No Michael, don't be easy. Be nasty. Be tough. Be manly. Be Beastly. Wade punched you in the chest the other day and you stepped up and made some game changing plays. However, he can't punch you every day, you are going to have some inner fortitude to take your game to the next level.

Tomorrow, when you walk into practice I want you to walk up to Magloire and punch him. OK, not really, but you really do need to grow some huevos. Don't be a soft, finesse player, if we wanted a 6'10" shooter we would have signed Steve Novak. We tanked a season and you are supposed to be our prize. Grab 10 boards every games - it's not like Jermaine is hogging up the boards. Udonis comes in and gets 8 a game, why are you under 7 if you are logging more minutes? You need to take rebounding personally. Challenge Joel Anthony and Alonzo Mourning to a rebounding contest, playing for boonks (the loser bends over and gets kicked in the arse). Learn how to box out, throw elbows and play big or do we need to have big brother Zo punch you in the gut to remind you this is a man's sport?

I believe in you Mike, I just don't believe you are taking the right approach. Miami almost traded for Amar'e and they are targeting Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer too. Take it personally. You do not want to play Small Forward, do you? I am perfectly content with signing one of these studs and have you split time at the 3 and 4, but you shouldn't be. You should be hell bent on making Miami change its 2010 focus onto finding centers, small forwards and point guards... and instead you are trying to become a Small Forward in a Power Forwards body. Stop that. Unleash "THE BEAST"!

I like the sound of it Michael "The Beast" Beasley. I hope you do too, because you can be a Hall of Famer. You are so lucky to be playing with a HOFer, but your window of opportunity to become his trusted sidekick is closing fast.

Skipping Out the Back Door

So, today we finally hear from Rafer Alston and it just sounds like a lame excuse from a guy who mistakingly thinks he's too good to be third string. Judge for yourself:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4980995

It sounds like Rafer thought that if AI can get out of Philly with his daughter's illness, he can use a family member to get out too.

Rafer, the hero, decides his twin sister needed him because she had attempted suicide. BS! The last thing you wanna do to a family member who almost committed suicide is put the spotlight on them... it is embarrassing to admit that you almost took your own life. Alas, twin brother Rafer decides to cause a scene, quitting his high profile job and tell the story to ESPN. I'm sure his sister is loving him right now.

This rivals Latrell Sprewell's need to "feed his family" as his excuse for rejecting a lucrative extension offer from the T-Wolves with worst attempt at shielding selfishness with family motives. AI's may just be the most shameless and disgusting, as he was promoting a party with Jermaine Dupri a mere seven days after abandoning the 76ers in order to take care of his sick daughter, check him out:

http://bossip.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/flyer.jpg

I used to feel bad for talented headcases like Latrell and Dennis Rodman for prematurely ending their own careers, but as I have grown up I realize that they took their jobs for granted and deserved their fates. When you're young and talented you can get away with murder, but the expectation is that thirty year olds will not say things like "my dog ate my homework" and expect you to believe it.

AI and Skip should head to China to sell shoes with Stephon Marbury. The NBA accepts your resignations.

Amare and Boozer?

Rumors had been flying around that Miami's talks with Phoenix and Utah were about making deals in the off season for Stoudemire and/or Boozer. We already had heard Boozer lobbying to join forces with Wade last season and now Amare is letting it be known that he is open to a sign and trade to Miami or Cleveland after the season.

You figure Phoenix and Utah will be in a better position to deal their stars for young players and draft picks in the off-season rather than in the midst of a playoff push.

However, I wonder if Miami can pull off either acquisition without including Michael Beasley. Honestly, Phoenix and Utah will not have the leverage to demand Beasley as both Boozer and Stoudemire could easily sign rich contracts without their former club's help. If Beasley is shipped it will probably be part of a much bigger deal. Maybe landing both players?

Neither Boozer or Amare will ever be compared to Alonzo Mourning on the defensive end, but each is legitimately one of the top Power Forwards in the game and Amare can be very effective as an undersized center. As sad as it is to admit, Michael Beasley's legacy in Miami may end up being that of a trade asset.

Ever since we lost that draft lottery and we heard Pat Riley say that he was going to "leverage" the pick, this possibility has been in the back of my mind. It seems Michael Beasley was drafted because he was the best available player, nobody traded up for the right to draft him and he has been available ever since.

With Pat Riley you never know what to expect, he has already pulled off the largest trade in NBA history to help bring Miami its first championship, could this off-season bring us a similar package? My guess is that Wade WILL have two All-Stars playing next to him next season even if it has to be at the expense of Mike Beasley.

Time to Heat up or Shut up

NBA.com blog writer Sekou Smith was impressed by the Heat's 114-111 overtime victory, saying the victory had "less to do with the Heat distancing itself from the likes of the Bobcats and more to do with showing the Los Angeles Lakers that its one-point Dec. 4 loss at Staples Center was a realistic depiction of how good it could be at the top of its game".

He says the difference between Miami and the other struggling .500 teams is the fact that we have Dwyane Wade, who "remains one of the games truly elite players". Like the rest of us, he wishes the supporting cast "came to play more often".

Nothing new here, we have all seen these guys show "flashes of absolute brilliance and complete disaster within the same calendar week". The thing I'm sensing is that the fan base is sick of it. Many of us have gotten so disgusted that we secretly want them to miss the playoffs and spare us the potential embarrassment of a playoff series against an elite club.

We figure we have a better chance to win the NBA draft lottery than to win the NBA title. Not true, if you believe John Hollinger's simulations which give Miami a 0.7% chance of winning the title. The third or fourth best teams missing the playoffs will have a 0.7% chance and 0.8% chance to win the lottery, so if you cannot see this team winning a title, you should not hold your breath on winning the lottery. John Wall would be a gift from the heavens, but I prefer to go for .

I have to admit I still feel the glass is half empty with this group of players, but I sincerely hope they play out the final 20 games and playoffs with a chip on their shoulder and take out their frustrations on their first round opponent. They need to make a commitment to each other and play as a team. That's all there is to it, play your game and pay no attention to the media. If they believe they can win, they need to play like it nightly.

A new season begins now. The goal should be to finish the season hot. Going 14-6 the rest of the way would give them a 45-37 record and strong chance of earning the 5th seed. It should also give them the confidence needed to become world beaters at the right time.

I am also not holding my breath on that scenario, but anything can happen and this is my wish for them. How likely is this scenario? What are your wishes for the rest of this season?

What if Wade did not play this year?

Consider me amongst those that thinks every win is beautiful. However, struggling to pull out a home victory against a severely shorthanded Golden State team was alarming.

I think it is safe to say that without Wade, Miami loses to that team yesterday. When one of the league's bottom feeders, playing with the minimum 8 players and two of them are of the D-league variety, is a tough matchup for you, you aren't very good. When you aren't very good and you have Dwyane Wade on your team, you flat out stink.

I am not going to get into the Tito Jackson debate, but seriously, are the New Jersey Nets better than Miami if Wade were not on the team?

Second Chance...

"Just when I thought you couldn't be any dumber, you go and do something like this... and totally redeem yourself!".

That is a classic line from Harry (Jeff Daniels) in the comedy "Dumb and Dumber", and it pretty much sums up the Miami Heat season for me. No matter how pathetic, ridiculous, stupid and irresponsible they find a way to reel us back in for the ride.

As I look at the standings today, I realize that the #4 through #10 seeds in the East have all lost a game or two or three consecutively to go along with our four straight defeats... except for Toronto, which has found a way to match our losing streak of 4 games.

Not only are we back in the 8th spot, after only one day of being on the outside looking in, but we are actually only 2 1/2 games away from our original target, the fifth spot. Any one of us will be relieved just to have this team qualify for the playoffs, but it is also nice to be able to look at that 5th spot and in the words of Lloyd (Jim Carrey) say "So you're telling me there's a chance!"

Pieces to the 2010 Puzzle

UPDATED CALCULATIONS - Assuming a conservative $53 Million Cap for 2010 (contracts rounded into tenths)

$16.6 D. Wade (his max contract starts at 30% of the cap)

$5.0 M. Beasley

$2.2 D. Cook

$1.9 J. Jones (assuming his release, deadline is June 30th)

$1.5 MIA First Round pick (estimate)

$1.3 TOR First Round pick (estimate)

$0.8 M. Chalmers

$0.8 J. Anthony

---------------------------------------------

$29.1 for seven roster spots

$0.5 empty slot cap hold

$0.5 " "

$0.5 " "

$0.5 " "

$0.5 " "

---------------------------------------------

$31.6 cap hold after the draft, releasing James Jones and re-signing Wade

Leaves $21.4 million on the table. Every time a player is signed, you eliminate a $0.5 cap hold too, so that is a lot of money. Assuming they spend it on:

2 players = $22.4 million ... two players averaging $11.2M

3 players = $22.9 million ... three players averaging $7.6M

4 players = $23.4 million ... four players averaging $5.9M (about 4 mid level exceptions)

5 players = $23.9 million ... five players averaging $4.8M

6 players = $24.4 million ... six players averaging $4.1M

Most likely, the last few roster spots would be filled with players earning the veteran minimum after the money has been exhausted between two to four players. A second round pick or undrafted free agent could also round the roster, but let's not waste our time with roster spots 11-15.

What would you guys do if you had these numbers to play with? Besides Wade, the Heat has $10-15 million in tradeable assets, depending on whether it keeps James Jones on board for another season or not (yes, Beasley is a trade asset... think back to Boston trading Al Jefferson for KG). Maybe the glass is half full after all?

Thanks a New Day for providing the maximum starting salaries for the top players:

$17.3 A. Stoudemire

$16.8 J. Johnson

$16.6 D. Wade

$16.6 L. James

$16.6 C. Bosh

$14.4 C. Boozer

$12.0 R. Gay