It is easy to expect the Miami Heat to blow out the Orlando Magic after what we saw in the pre-season opener. However, a much different game could emerge in game 2, the preseason finale.
I expect Orlando and its star Dwight Howard to show a little bit more pride this time around as they will be playing in front of their home crowd for the first time. It will be interesting to see what kind of reception Dwight Howard gets from a fan base that has to be pretty convinced it is losing yet another NBA superstar as he hits his prime.
Emerging playmaker Norris Cole has a great opportunity to solidify his spot as an energy guy off the bench. One day he could be a starter, but if he is capable of being a role player off the bench this year, he should consider himself blessed. While Miami has struck out in the free agent point guard market (at least they kept their part time starter in Mario Chalmers), a veteran or two shakes free and the Heat is always looking to upgrade.
The same opportunity is there for the twin mountains -- Eddy Curry and Dexter Pittman -- as Riley has yet to come across a legitimate upgrade at the position he arguably values most. Pittman's chance to shine is while Eddy Curry is injured, which is now and could be a recurring issue if the past is an indicator. Neither player has a guaranteed contract, but they are both expected to make the cut and get some minutes. I expect a solid game from Pittman tonight if he is allowed to play through his fouls.
Lastly, most fans will have an eye on the hopefuls for the 15th roster spot. Some argue that shooters like Terrel Harris and Derrick Byars should be kept for their youth, but they are 24 and 27 respectively. They have the look of solid role players, but I do not think you should keep them based on the fact that they are young. They should be kept if they are knock down shooters. Today they get a chance to prove that they are fearless and not one hit wonders.
Prediction: Miami 110 - Orlando 103
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Is This a Must Win Year for the Miami Heat?
The Miami Heat has the look and feel of a championship team already. There are only two teams ahead of them in the standings. One in the East (Boston) and one in the West (San Antonio).
While regular season records do not count for anything other than home court advantage, I think now is a good time to accept the idea that Miami is currently, at best, the third best team in the NBA. If I were to guess today, Miami would get eliminated by Boston in the conference finals much in the way that they were in Shaq's first year in Miami.
Is that OK? I do not think so. Not then, and much less now. They would be losing to an admirable opponent just as they did when they fell short to the Detroit Pistons, but this team is not in the business of admiring opponents.
I could accept it had LeBron not jumped onto the squad, but the moment he decided to team up with Wade and Bosh, the expectation was that the best basketball player in the world two times over (MVP in 2009 and 2010) would have no excuses left should he fall short of delivering a title. His team had the best record in the league for the past two seasons, but did not have the goods in the playoffs. This team has the most clutch playoff performer in Dwyane Wade and the most coveted big man in this year's free agent class in Chris Bosh, well ahead of Amare and Boozer.
I know that Boston, Los Angeles and San Antonio are deep and have been together for many years. I am also aware that they all have legendary coaches who know how to win titles. Beating them will not be easy, but it has to happen. The urgency needs to be there, but people are already lowering the bar. Shame on them. Anybody that has watched the NBA for the past 8 years knows what LeBron and Dwyane bring, why are we bowing down to anybody? Why are we talking about Jordan's failures with the Pistons? LeBron and Dwyane have already failed with the Celtics, that is why they teamed up. They are allowed to lose three more times to them this year, no more.
Barring any unexpected family issues they will have to make do with Spo, who is not on the level of Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich or Doc Rivers. In order to close the gap with those teams - I am not yet buying that LA is as dysfunctional as they seem - they will need to upgrade their roster or find some other way to increase productivity by about 5%. Specifically, winning the close games and closing out the ones that should be blowouts before they become nail-biters.
I have never made it a secret that I am always in favor of a roster or coaching upgrade, however, I think that this group can and should get it done. It is February and it is now obvious to any reasonable fan why Dwyane and LeBron wanted to team up: Boston, LA and San Antonio are at a level that neither player could overcome on their own without having a lot of luck on their side.
Teaming up was their way of saying "We are too good to sit on the sidelines and wait for our turn... we are taking back our league because we are friends and we sincerely believe that nobody could stop us if we joined forces".
Now is the time to prove that theory to be true.
I do not care how good those other teams are. We are talking about LeBron and Dwyane. Double Rainbow. 82 games is more than enough time to figure out invincibility. When Shaq joined Miami I had the belief that nobody could beat our team four times out of seven, health permitting. I have that same belief today.
LeBron and Dwyane, please do not let us down. We believe in your greatness and we will stay by your side no matter what. However, we selfishly want you to live up to your own lofty expectations of "not two, not three..." and that all starts with one, as in year one.
Get ready for it, the first one can be the hardest.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat: Preview
When/Where: 7:30 p.m., AmericanAirlines Arena.
Tickets: Limited amount available at www.Heat.com or 1-800-4NBA-TIX.
TV -- Sun Sports, NBA TV (blacked out in South Florida). Radio -- WINZ (940-AM), WQBA (1140-AM, Spanish).
Scouting report: This is the first of eight exhibitions for the Heat, as well as the first of three at AmericanAirlines Arena. It also is the Pistons' exhibition opener . . . The Heat went 2-1 against Detroit last season . . . For the Heat, point guard Mario Chalmers (ankle) is doubtful, with forward Da'Sean Butler (knee) out . . . Forward Chris Wilcox (hamstring) is questionable for the Pistons . . . Unlike the Heat, the Pistons had a relatively uneventful offseason, with free-agent Tracy McGrady and first-round pick Greg Monroe the only additions of note . . . Detroit last season missed the playoffs for the first time since 2000-01.
From Ira Winderman at the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
---------------
Prediction: Miami wins by 20. Strong performances from top to bottom. Patrick Beverley and Dexter Pittman will be pleasant surprises.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
B/R Article: Will Spo Win Coach of the Year and Earn Riley's Trust?
Original article can be found at:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/476874-miami-heat-will-erik-spoelstra-win-nba-coach-of-the-year-pat-rileys-trust
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/476874-miami-heat-will-erik-spoelstra-win-nba-coach-of-the-year-pat-rileys-trust
Who is Erik Spoelstra?
He is the guy with both the easiest and the hardest job in the NBA.
His job is to push the Miami Heat to an NBA title this season, the year after that one, and the next one for good measure in order to establish job security.
Pat Riley runs the Heat franchise and has made it very clear that, as team president, he will always do what is best for the team.
So far, Riley has decided to go with Spoelstra much in the same way that he kept Stan Van Gundy in charge when Shaq strolled into town.
We all remember how that chapter ended.
Van Gundy failed to win a title in his first year and less than a third of the way into his second season with a title contender, he was axed and replaced by the Hall of Fame coach who presided over him.
Miami went on to win its only NBA title that season, before their championship window closed as Dwyane Wade dealt with multiple injuries and Shaquille O'Neal asked to be dealt after realizing he played with Chris Quinn and Ricky Davis.
An embarrassing 15-win season resulted and Riley stepped down again, giving Erik Spoelstra the job.
In two seasons, the former Heat video coordinator has produced mixed reviews.
He has been praised for getting his players to hustle, and accused of being unimaginative on offense. He is respected for guiding them to the playoffs, and blamed for their disappointing first round exits. He is complemented for being a player's coach, unlike Riley, while also viewed as a Riley puppet.
Last year, the 39-year-old coach kept the Heat competitive against the best, but buzzer beaters by Kobe Bryant, Rajon Rondo, and Paul Pierce got him strategically second guessed over and over.
Coach Spo's rotation was also a topic of debate. Many teams licked their chops waiting to pounce on Miami's offensively challenged second unit. Dwyane Wade was routinely forced into hero mode against the most modest of opponents.
The most overly scrutinized part of his rotation was his decision to start Michael Beasley and close the games with Udonis Haslem. Miami's second leading scorer was routinely left on the bench with the game in the balance, because the coach viewed him as erratic offensively and not fundamentally sound on defense.
This unavoidable fiasco divided the fan base as both players were incapable of playing out of position.
Wade's preference was for Haslem to be on the court with him with the games on the line. In many cases, he was right, as UD earned the nickname Captain Clutch with his late game heroics. Yet on other nights, when coach was forced to play Beasley, his brilliance rescued the team from defeat.
Like the day that Beasley dunked home a game-winning slam off of a Wade airball before the buzzer.
In retrospect, Coach Spoelstra got more right than he got wrong, because his methods resulted in his receiving Coach of the Month honors in March as the Heat went 12-3 and torpedoed their way all the way up to a number five seed in the East and a first round date with the Boston Celtics.
On second thought, that was his worst decision ever.
The Miami Heat controlled their destiny with a 46-35 record heading into the final game against the 12-69 New Jersey Nets. A win would earn them the fifth spot against Boston, while a loss would have secured a rematch with the Atlanta Hawks, who Miami battled to seven games just the year before.
Coach Spoelstra refused to tank the game suggesting he did not want to upset the basketball gods.
Miami was then steam rolled by the eventual Eastern Conference champion.
At the time I argued that the Boston Celtics were to be more feared than any mythical "basketball gods" that may or may not exist.
And the LeBron James and Chris Bosh took their talents to South Beach..
The coach that I have mocked for preaching about "The Energy Bus", a best selling book about positive psychology, now has me in the driver's seat of his Coach of the Year campaign.
In his first day of training camp, he split up his superstars and had them lead four man teams in defensive battles where one point was assigned per defensive stop.
People are going to continue to be divided on Coach Spoelstra, but count me amongst the believers.
I know it sounds really simplistic, arrogant, and even ignorant when he says that the offense will take care of itself, but he has a point.
It will be very hard for anybody to hold Miami under 100 points.
The only way to dethrone both the Lakers and Celtics is to outperform them on the defensive end and Coach Spoelstra has his team pushing for championship level intensity already. His team seems energized and motivated to land the top seed throughout the playoffs and maybe even challenge for the all-time record of 72 wins, set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
The defensive tenacity that Spoelstra instilled into last season's was nothing short of impressive.
A team that was admittedly not very high on talent was second in the NBA in points against, second in opponent field goal percentage, fourth in opponent three point percentage and even out rebounded their opposition in spite of being undersized.
Imagine superstars like Chris Bosh and LeBron James buying into the system.
Downright scary.
That is what makes him the overwhelming Coach of the Year favorite.
However, his job security will fall 100 percent on his ability to deliver a championship.
Statistical analysis has Miami at around 35 percent odds of taking home the trophy, but I suspect Pat Riley expects to win now. If Stan Van Gundy was given the axe for failing to deliver a title with Shaq and Dwyane, imagine the amount of pressure that Spoelstra feels with this group.
Those odds point to a 65 percent chance that Erik Spoelstra will fail to bring home the title.
Boston and Los Angeles have intimidating, playoff tested rosters coupled with amazing coaches. Doc Rivers or Phil Jackson could easily outfox Spoelstra in the playoffs, but a playoff exit to any other opponent would be the ultimate kiss of death.
Yes, Erik Spoelstra may win a regular season award, but he has higher odds of getting canned.
In fact, Pat Riley may already be itching for the job.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Whose Team Is It? Don't Fall For That Trap
I don't like it when people call it D-Wade's team, because it pushes the agenda of making LeBron James seem like a subservient coward.
He is not.
LBJ had other options where he could have won a title, two titles, maybe three titles, but this was the place where he could dream of "not six, not seven..."
That is what he wanted.
That is why he joined D-Wade. Neither of them has to change their game, because they are both great all around players who just have to take turns doing the things they like to do.
The last shot is going to be overly scrutinized and could be a point of contention if LBJ does not get his fair share of buzzer beating opportunities... Wade will probably take more of them, but James will want some of the glory too.
Of course, plenty of other players will get game winning opportunities. Chris Bosh, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem also took paycuts in order to make history.
This is their team.
Miami fans should not punish LeBron for deciding on Miami. He could grow very unhappy if Miami fans cling to Wade as their knight and shining armor.
It is OK to like one superstar more than the other, but Heat fans need to make sure all three of their megastars get the love they deserve.
When I hear Miami fans say things like "LeBron James will carry us in the regular season and Dwyane Wade will carry us in the playoffs" I get concerned that Heat fans are still holding onto some of the bitterness of the Dwyane/LeBron rivalry.
The team may win multiple titles in the following years, but the relationship between LeBron and his new fan base could impact "The Decision 2", currently scheduled for the summer of 2014, when he has an opt out clause.
He is not.
LBJ had other options where he could have won a title, two titles, maybe three titles, but this was the place where he could dream of "not six, not seven..."
That is what he wanted.
That is why he joined D-Wade. Neither of them has to change their game, because they are both great all around players who just have to take turns doing the things they like to do.
The last shot is going to be overly scrutinized and could be a point of contention if LBJ does not get his fair share of buzzer beating opportunities... Wade will probably take more of them, but James will want some of the glory too.
Of course, plenty of other players will get game winning opportunities. Chris Bosh, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem also took paycuts in order to make history.
This is their team.
Miami fans should not punish LeBron for deciding on Miami. He could grow very unhappy if Miami fans cling to Wade as their knight and shining armor.
It is OK to like one superstar more than the other, but Heat fans need to make sure all three of their megastars get the love they deserve.
When I hear Miami fans say things like "LeBron James will carry us in the regular season and Dwyane Wade will carry us in the playoffs" I get concerned that Heat fans are still holding onto some of the bitterness of the Dwyane/LeBron rivalry.
The team may win multiple titles in the following years, but the relationship between LeBron and his new fan base could impact "The Decision 2", currently scheduled for the summer of 2014, when he has an opt out clause.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Calling All To Asylum + Sun-Sentinel Progress
Chris Tiedje has launched war upon us, dictating to us how it is going down... rather than helping us. Forget him and the Sun Sentinel blog... this is your home.
Embrace it, love it, make it the best HEAT board on the internet.
I think you all know I will put in a daily article if there is a community that posts and comes for the games, etc.
Let's do it.
UPDATE: We temporarily slayed the CAPTCHA monster and Ohshz should be good to go:
Press Conference Notes
It was uncomfortable watching LeBron James on one side, Chris Bosh on the other with Dwyane Wade in the middle.
I do not think Bosh cares, but LeBron seems out of his element.
I do not blame him either. He is getting a lot of Heat for going to be on "D-Wade's team", so I think the Heat should be more sensitive to his feelings and make some press conference adjustments. Here are their most basic options:
Option A: Keep D-Wade front and center and let people say what they will. It is D-Wade's team and LeBron has to accept that.
Option B: Put Chris Bosh front and center and laugh at the situation. Wade or LBJ will be flanking the sides, just like they will be on the court in a regular basis.
Option C: Come up with a rotation that allows them all an equal chance to get center stage.
Option D: Don't bring them all out at once. They are not the Boston Celtics, no need to market a Big 3.
My preference is to rotate the players into center stage. They are all leading men and over the course of the season they will all take turns carrying the team on their back. Maybe Dwyane is the leader and he deserves to get the center billing, but I think he needs to be a gracious host and step to the side to accommodate LBJ and Bosh's egos.
They were not drafted by the Miami Heat and they have not won an NBA championship yet, but if they did not decide to join D-Wade, he would have gone elsewhere. He needs to thank them by dialing down the perception that it is D-Wade's team.
Besides that, it was really nice to see the statistics ESPN posted during the press conference:
* D-Wade, LBJ, Michael Jordan and Allen Iverson are the only guys since 1973 to average 25 points, 5 assists and 1.5 steals.
* Bosh (23 points, 10 rebounds), Ming and Zach Randolph are the only guys to average 20-10 over the past three seasons.
* 66-16 is the projected win total for the season after 10,000 simulations. The high was 77 and the low was 41. There was a 35% chance of winning the title and a 15% chance of winning 73 games and taking the all-time regular season record from the Chicago Bulls.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Is Erick Dampier the Final Piece?
I have often said that I would take Erick Dampier over Jamaal Magloire in my center rotation. While the Big Kat is actually younger, it is not apparent on the basketball court.
My main concern with the possibly imminent signing of Erick Dampier is the back end of the roster. The Heat currently has three intriguing prospects in Patrick Beverley, Da'Sean Butler and Dexter Pittman that I would like to see win the 13th, 14th and 15th spots on the roster.
Pat Riley made an excellent point about this situation when asked about Miami's interest in the center. He said " When you have to worry about the bottom of the roster you're in good shape."
Riley did not guarantee a starting position to Dampier, instead he confirmed there would be competition. "It would be a very competitive situation at that position in camp." Riley said. "I don't think you can ever have enough big guys today, with who you have to beat today, and especially a veteran, defensive oriented guy."
I agree with Riley on this one.
Do not worry about guaranteed contracts. Do not worry about prospects. Do not even worry about having a balanced roster. Put together the best 20 man roster for camp as possible and come out of it with the best group of guys for this year and beyond. The competition and depth created is more important than cutting somebody with a guaranteed contract or a promising future.
Assuming Dampier signs, who would you cut? Obviously camp has not opened, but we all have a general idea of who the players are and what role they would fill on this team. Here is my first attempt:
C - Dampier / Anthony / Ilgauskas / Pittman (Magloire)
PF - Bosh / Haslem / Howard (Randolph)
SF - James / Miller / Jones
SG - Wade / House (Butler)
PG - Chalmers / Arroyo / Beverley (Hasbrouck)
That is not a definitive list, but more of an indication of where things stand today. Butler is currently injured, so he is on the outside looking in. The way I have it now, the inactive list would be Juwan Howard plus two developmental players.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Miami Heat Still in Need of a Sound
This song has just popped up recently via youtube and I think it starts to get closer to the Miami Heat sound I am looking for. Yes, songs inspired by teams are cheesy, but we already knew it was going to be Hollywood when James, Wade and Bosh teamed up.
My brother has spent a lot of years in the music business and he believed LeBron would head down to South Beach due to the hip hop party scene. A theory I found very interesting and valid. It seems to me that this Miami Heat team will help inspire the Miami rap community.
I think this song is a bit of an upgrade over "We Already Won" by FloRida, but people need to step their games up if they want to honor this team with a song worthy of their collective talents.
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Chris Tiedje
September 27, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Sure. I can turn it off if you don’t mind 100 posts an hour about viagra.
Sorry guys. We lasted almost a year without having to use it, but in the last week with major hacker attacks on Twitter and Facebook the SPAM bots finally found our WordPress blogs. Unfortunately, it is a necessary evil.
————
I also agree that I would rather get rid of captcha and see how bad it gets with the viagra ads. I mean, if we could deal with trolls, I’m sure we can handle a few of those ads.
In any case, the nature of posting of this board is compromised by having to write “distating cisoved”.
Other votes against or for captcha by the remaining few?
Not gonna happen. If the SPAM gets through, then so do the trolls. Not on my watch.
The viagra ads probably have better basketball points than one poster on here. But, I can use the ignore button for them just like I do for him.
Go Hawks!
how does that block button work? i don’t see it anywhere and would like to know how to enable it.
How do you get an ignore button?
Also, I respectfully will not post here very much under your watch. You have killed the blog.
Ohshz’s suspension is baffling too… any chance he comes back under your watch?
Thanks for getting rid of the trolling, but you are now bullying the board and killing its soul.
The ignore featue is like the force… it is inside each one of you… you just need to use it.
Chris: I won’t belabor this anymore (although if other people do, that would be great). I think you are exaggerating the spam threat and I also think you are mistaken about the effectiveness of the reCAPTCHAs on reducing trolls.
i guess that was witty JB but it seems to me there is an actual ignore button that some of us can’t see or use. where is it?
I’ve emailed Ohshz about his actions, that is if he used a legit email in his comments.
Sorry to hear we won’t be seeing you much. You’ll be missed.
And guys, JB is messing with you.
damn, i thought i saw someone else post something about an ignore button but it was probably just JB….guess I was duped.
The recaptcha thing I think is mostly just turning people off of the blog. I’ve seen plenty of troll problems on here but I’ve never noticed a spam problem. And I have to agree with Cyrus. While I still like coming on here and seeing what everyone is saying, this blog has lost its personality and has become kind of dull. And I’m pretty sure that’s not just because it’s the off season…..there’s plenty to talk about with the Miami Heat.
Thanks for that update. What is the next step for him to take? He said he did not receive an e-mail. I don’t think you sincerely will miss anybody and that is ok, you have a job to do.
But what is that job? Is it for the Sun-Sentinel to no longer have the best Heat blog on the internet. Ira has put in a lot of work to create this following. Does he not like having hundreds of comments for every blog he posts?
No steps to take. All he has to do is comment.
Ira’s numbers have never been better. Thanks for asking.
there is absolutely no way that is true
Chris your implying that you own the blog… why not just moderate but be less cocky.. thank you.
Sorry. It is mostly a thankless job.
It should be a thankless job and it should also be a job where you do what is best for your loyal readers.
If they are begging you to take captcha off because they hate it, you should not say you will miss us. Can you talk to Ira about the situation? I think he should really be making the call at this point.
You assume Ira doesn’t know. This is his blog, not mine. You’re fooling yourself if you think he doesn’t know every single thing that happens here.
I truly am sorry about the recaptcha. I promise you that you don’t want the floodgates of SPAM opened.
maybe if he hadn’t previously stated that he doesn’t pay attention to the comments on his blog, we could believe that. i want to believe he knows what is going on here, but that’s a tough sale. i can’t even make out a lot of the recaptcha stuff…..it’s not just preventing spam, it’s preventing posters from wanting to deal with this.
Thank you Chris for explaining all of that. I am glad to know that Ira knows what is going on. Like dsky said, our perception is that he may not be paying attention to the way captcha has turned off his loyal readers.
What numbers are you referring to? I’m sure people read his blog, but there is no way the numbers are better than ever when it comes to activity on this blog… it takes twice as much effort to post and there are fewer people to interact with.
Basically, does Ira not care about his loyal following, because his numbers are better than ever?
The ignore feature works quite well. The hot key is the “pgdn” key. I use it all the time.
adam youghar
I’m just glad we don’t have to read through the usual spam and racist remarks by you know who today.
agreed….i really don’t know how he wasn’t booted after comparing having a favorite team you root for to nazi germany….that still baffles me when i think about it.
My prediction for the top 8 records in the East.
1. Miami
2. Orlando
3. Milwaukee
4. Boston
5. Atlanta
6. Chicago
7. New York
8. Charlotte
CyrusTheVirus says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:46 pm
When will Ohshz’s suspension come to an end? It seems he has already served his time…
BTW, training camp fodder added in Anthony Mason Jr. and Mickell Gladness. Gladness is the all-time leader in NCAA shotblocks – I guess he replaces what Varnado would have brought to training camp.
__________________
FREE OHSHZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JB you have gotten maybe everybody with the “ignore button” including me. Mad props my man. As for the whole recaptcha squabble, cant we all get passed this? I personally don’t want you guys to leave and I’m sure that’s not what Chris wants. Onto basketball, loved the quotes from Wade especially :
Wade, on not having to be the sole leader: “I’m not the loudest guy. It allows me to stay within my personality and not go outside my box.”
Does that sound like the words of a Diva?
http://www.gettyimages.com/Search/Search.aspx?contractUrl=2&language=en-US&family=editorial&assetType=image&p=miami%20heat
pics starting to come out
OK. I’m game for an experiment. Seems like you guys are tired of me, so I’ll gracefully make my exit. I’ll turn off the recaptcha. I’ll check back in a while to see how you’re all doing.
Thank you. We will let you know how it goes down. Have a great day. We really appreciate you doing that.